基于系统动力学的土地质量变化

为综合分析土地整理工程影响下的土地质量变化，揭示在工程干扰下的土地系统行为变化规律及可能产生的土地问题，该文运用系统动力学方法，以Vensim软件作为平台，构建反映土地整理工程影响下土地质量变化的系统动力学模型，并进行模拟和预测。研究结果表明：在现状条件下，整理完成后园地和林地面积都有所增加，耕地面积、土地质量均表现出先增加后减小的趋势；极限条件下模拟发现2012年是各种生态服务功能、土地价值的拐点，表现出先增加后减少的特征，2012年土地质量货币化表示的最大值也是各种情景模拟有可能出现的最大土地经济价值极限值。这为研究区在土地整理工程完成后进一步优化区域土地资源配置，制定土地规划政策以实现土地、经济、社会、生态系统的协调发展提供依据。

Changes of land quality based on system dynamics

In order to comprehensively analyze the changes of land quality affected by land consolidation and reveal the variation of land system caused by projects along with land problems, system dynamics was used to simulate the land quality changes based on Vensim software. The results showed that under current model, areas of grassland and garden were increased after land consolidation, and area of cultivated land firstly was increased and then decreased, while the land quality was improved at beginning and then deteriorated. Supposing the residual field ridge was changed into cropland and unutilized lands were exploited into cropland, the monetization representation of land quality, the ecological service value of cultivated lands and the total value reached maximum in 2012, and subsequently decreased. This monetization representation of land quality was also represented by the maximum value in various scenarios. The results can provide a basis for optimal allocation of land resources and promote the coordinative development of land, economic, social and ecological system.