粮食生产水平的内涵解析及其预测方法

粮食生产水平是粮食安全相关研究的焦点之一，但目前对其内涵的界定仍有不同的理解，也缺少一种相对标准的预测方法。为了准确解析粮食生产水平的内涵并建立合理的预测方法，该文以对比分析和数学估计为主要方法，首先以粮食单产、粮食生产能力与粮食生产水平之间的物理关系为切入点，界定了粮食生产水平的实质内涵；进而依据粮食单产与粮食生产水平间的数学关系，以粮食单产数据为基础建立了粮食生产水平的预测方法。并以洞庭湖区8个县为例，计算2007和2008年粮食生产水平预测值，与粮食单产对比分析进行验证，结果表明粮食生产水平与粮食单产的差值符合当年粮食生产情况。在此基础上，预测了2011－2015年洞庭湖区8个县的粮食生产水平。该文可为粮食生产的相关研究提供理论和方法的参考。

Connotation and prediction method of grain production level

Grain production level is significant for the research of grain security, which incorporates various connotations, but lack of an effective method to predict the level in current research. Comparative analysis and mathematics estimation were employed as the main methods in this research. To interpret the connotation of grain production level and establish the prediction method, firstly, the substantial connotation of grain production level was redefined though analysis and identifying the complex relation among grain yield, grain production capacity and grain production level. Then base on the mathematical analysis between grain production level and grain yield, prediction method was established. Taking 8 counties of Dongting Lake area as an example, grain production levels in 2007 and 2008 were predicted, and then the grain production was verified with grain yield. The results show that the discrepancies between grain production level and grain yield are consistent with the condition of that years. Furthermore, grain production levels of the 8 counties from 2011 to 2015 were predicted. The research can provide academic and methodological references to the grain production study.