基于不确定性理论的区域土地利用结构优化

为了还原土地利用结构优化的不确定环境,提高土地利用结构优化水平,同时为了开拓土地利用结构优化的新视角,该文基于不确定性对土地利用结构进行优化。该文将基于不确定性的土地利用结构优化分为不确定因素最可能发生时的优化与不确定因素在一定发生可能范围时的优化,前者的优化结果是单一的土地利用结构,后者的优化结果是土地结构弹性区间。首先用期望值模型求取不确定因素最可能发生时的土地优化结构;其次以多目标遗传算法为基础,用随机模拟法求取不确定因素在一定发生可能范围时的优化结构弹性区间。结果表明:不确定因素最可能发生时,扬州2020年土地最优结构的经济利益、生态利益分别是10.0×1011和8.98×1011元,大于现状土地结构与扬州土地利用总体规划中土地结构的经济与生态利益;2020年扬州市土地利用优化结构弹性区间中,对不确定性承纳贡献最大的土地类型是耕地、城镇工矿用地、园地,对不确定因素敏感性最高的土地类型是林地、园地、交通水利用地。该研究为土地利用类型弹性区间大小划定及土地利用结构调整提供依据。

Regional land use structure optimization under uncertain theory

Abstract: In order to restore the uncertain environment for the optimization of regional land use structure, obtain better results in the optimization of land use structure, and create a new perspective for the optimization of land use structure, this paper examined the optimization of land use structure based on uncertainty. In this study, the optimization of land use structure based on uncertainty was classified into two categories: the optimization when the uncertainty factors are most likely to occur and the optimization when the uncertainty factors occur with a certain probability. The result of the first type of optimization was a specific land use structure, and the result of the second type of optimization was an elastic range of the land use structure. In this study, we first estimated the optimal land use structure when the uncertainty factors are most likely to occur using the expectation-model approach, and then calculated the elastic range of optimal land use structure when the uncertainty factors occur with a certain probability using the random simulation method based on the multi-objective genetic algorithm. When the uncertainty factors were most likely to occur, the economic benefit and ecological benefit for the optimal land use structure in Yangzhou city in 2020 was 10.0?1011 Yuan and 8.98?1011 Yuan, respectively, which was larger than the economic benefit and ecological benefit for the current land use structure and lager than the economic benefit and ecological benefit for the land use structure in Yangzhou land use overall planning. In the elastic range for the optimization of land use structure in 2020 in Yangzhou when the likelihood that the uncertainty factors will occur is 80%, the land use types which bear the largest uncertainty are cultivated land, urban construction and mining land and garden land, and the land use types which are most sensitive to the uncertainty are woodland, garden land, and transportation land. This paper restored the uncertainty environment for the optimization of land use structure, proposed a method for the optimization of land use structure based on uncertainty, and provided a theoretical basis and scientific method for the calculation of the elastic range of an optimal land use structure and the change in land use structure.