县域农业生态环境质量动态评价及预测

全面客观地评价和预测区域农业生态环境质量状况及发展趋势,对于维持农业可持续发展和生态平衡具有重要意义。基于2001-2010年临汾市尧都区农业生态环境质量相关数据,从农业自然环境状况、农业生产投入和农业生态环境响应3个方面构建农业生态环境评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法对评价指标进行了筛选,并采用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对临汾市尧都区未来农业生态环境状况进行预测。研究结果表明:尧都区农业生态环境质量综合指数总体呈上升趋势,质量等级从2001年的"差"变为2015年的"优";尧都区农业生态环境质量状况空间差异明显,不同乡镇由于社会经济发展水平、农业发展方式、农业生态保护力度等因素不同,导致全区农业生态环境格局分布的差异性以及空间演化的异质性;农业生产投入子系统对农业生态环境质量的变化影响最大,表明了人类活动对农业生态环境质量变化的显著影响;针对农业生态环境质量不同影响因素的作用力度,尧都区应该开展植树造林活动以提高林地指数,根据区域水资源承载力状况合理加大水资源开发力度,改善农田排水系统,逐步加大生物农药施用量的比重。农业生态环境质量动态评价及预测研究能够有效地反映生态环境质量的演变趋势,为区域农业可持续发展和农业生态环境建设提供一定的决策参考。

Dynamic assessment and prediction on quality of agricultural eco-environment in county area

Abstract: With the development of society, economy, and human progress, human activities have had increasingly significant effects on the agricultural eco-environment. Evaluating the regional quality of the agricultural eco-environment comprehensively and making a reasonable judgment of its development trends are significant for the maintenance of sustainable agriculture development and ecological balance. The research about agricultural eco-environment has shown widespread concern by scholars at home and abroad, and numerous studying methods and models have been applied to this field. However, most current studies have been focused on fixed times and areas, and are lacking in analysis of the dynamic changes of agricultural eco-environment quality and prediction of its developing trends. The Yaodu District of Linfen City was selected as the study area in this report, where the impact of human activities on the agricultural eco-environment has become increasingly evident with the acceleration of urbanization, indicating that study area is relatively representative in North China. Based on the related data of the quality of the agricultural eco-environment in this area from 2001 to 2010, this study constructed an evaluating index system of agricultural eco-environmental quality from three aspects which were agricultural natural environmental conditions, agricultural production inputs, and agricultural eco-environmental responses. The principal component analysis method was used to filter evaluation indicators, the entropy method was selected to determine the weight of each index, and the GM (1, 1) grey system theory model was applied to predict the evolution trend of agricultural eco-environment. Selecting the township as the basic evaluation unit, spatial and temporal variability of agricultural eco-environment quality were analyzed according to above evaluation methods. The results were as follows: 1) The comprehensive index of agricultural eco-environmental quality generally showed an upward trend in the Yaodu District of Linfen City, and quality level changed from "poor" in 2001 to "excellent" in 2015. 2) The spatial difference of agricultural eco-environmental quality was significant. Because of different socio-economic development, agricultural development modes, agro-ecological protection efforts and other factors in township level, distribution patterns and evolution trends of regional agricultural eco-environmental quality varied significantly. 3) The subsystem of agricultural production inputs had the greatest impact on the change of agricultural eco-environmental quality, which indicated that human activities had a significant influence on agricultural eco-environment. 4) As a precondition for sustainable growth in agriculture, some proposals were put forward to improve agricultural eco-environmental quality in the Yaodu District as well as in the northern region. Contrary to the different strengths of the impact factors of agricultural eco-environment quality, forestation activities should be carried out to improve the woodland index in the Yaodu District. In addition, people in this area should make reasonable efforts to increase water resources development, improve farmland drainage systems, and increase the amount of bio-pesticide application gradually. Research of dynamic assessment and prediction on agricultural eco-environmental quality can effectively reflect the evolution trends of agricultural eco-environment, which can provide certain decision-making references for regional sustainable development of agriculture and agro-ecological environment construction.