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长株潭地区生态系统服务价值分析及趋势预测
引用本文:郭荣中,杨敏华.长株潭地区生态系统服务价值分析及趋势预测[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(5):238-246.
作者姓名:郭荣中  杨敏华
作者单位:1. 中南大学地球科学与信息物理学院,长沙 410083; 2. 长沙环境保护职业技术学院,长沙 410004;;1. 中南大学地球科学与信息物理学院,长沙 410083;
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(21004018);湖南省科技厅科技计划项目(2011SK3203);长沙环境保护职业技术学院科研课题(10KY002)
摘    要:为促进区域土地资源的可持续利用和生态环境建设,该文以长株潭地区为研究对象,采用Costanza生态系统服务价值计算方法,参照修正后的长株潭地区生态系统单位面积生态服务价值系数,结合敏感性分析,探讨研究区域1996-2008年土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响,并利用灰色模型对其发展趋势进行了预测分析。结果表明:研究期内,研究区域生态系统服务价值从1996年的405.03×108元减少到2008年的399.83×108元。同时根据预测出的研究区域2011-2020年各类土地利用数量情况,得到2020年区域生态系统服务价值将减少到392.61×108元,区域价值受损的主要原因是生态系统服务价值系数较高的农用地转为无生态价值的建设用地,研究区域快速城市化的进程已给生态安全带来了巨大压力。区域生态环境持续退化的趋势应当引起当地政府部门高度关注并采取有效对策,以科学推进资源节约型和环境友好型社会的建设。

关 键 词:土地利用  生态系统  模型  生态系统服务价值  敏感性分析  GM(1  1)模型
收稿时间:2013/6/19 0:00:00
修稿时间:2013/11/10 0:00:00

Ecosystem service value analysis and trend prediction in Chang-Zhu-Tan region
Guo Rongzhong and Yang Minhua.Ecosystem service value analysis and trend prediction in Chang-Zhu-Tan region[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2014,30(5):238-246.
Authors:Guo Rongzhong and Yang Minhua
Institution:1. School of Info-Physics and Geomatics Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China; 2. Changsha Environmental Protection Occupation Technical College, Changsha 410004, China;;1. School of Info-Physics and Geomatics Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;
Abstract:Abstract: Ecosystem service value is life support products and services directly or indirectly obtained by ecosystem structures, processes, and functions. Land use/land cover change plays a decisive role in the maintenance of the ecosystem services function by altering the structure and function of ecosystems. By the assessment of LUCC on the ecosystem service value, the combined effects of regional land-use changes on ecosystems can be quantitatively and comparatively studied, providing significant insights into practical applications. In the present study, the effects of land use change are detailed and discussed to obtain the values of ecosystem services in the Chang-Zhu-Tan region from 1996 to 2008. Land use change trend is predicted by using the method proposed by Costanza (ESV) wherein the values of ecosystem services are calculated with regard to the value coefficients of ecosystem services per unit area in the Chinese terrestrial ecosystem, as well as being combined with sensitivity analysis and Gray Model (1,1). The process of the research is as follows: 1) The regional ecosystem service value equivalence factor and the amendment of benchmark unit price are studied based on Costanza's calculation method of ecosystem service value, as well as referring to the farmland ecosystem biomass factor table of our country's different provinces established by Xie Gaodi, etc.; 2) The studied regional ecosystem service values are assessed on the basis of the amended Chang-Zhu-Tan region ecosystem's unit area ecological service value table and the corresponding area of every land-using type of the studied region; 3) The spatial variability of ecosystem service value is analyzed for every county in the Chang-Zhu-Tan region; and 4) The area changes of each land use type in the studied region during 2011-2020 is predicted by use of the GM (1,1) model, and the total value of regional ecosystem services in that period is also evaluated. The conclusion from these studies is that, in the studied time period, the total value of ecosystem services decreased from 405.03×108 Yuan in 1996 to 399.83×108 Yuan in 2008. Likewise, the value of ecosystem services, as predicted in various land use changes from 2011 to 2020, will reduce to 392.61×108 Yuan in 2020. The reason for the reduction of the regional value is that agricultural land with high value coefficient of ecosystem services shifts to the non-value construction land. Enormous pressure is, therefore, exerted on ecological safety, resulting from rapid urbanization in the studied area in pursuit of high GDP development and growth. Local government and relevant departments should pay extensive attention to the continuing degradation of the regional ecological environment, and should take effective measures such as; working on the comprehensive plan for land ecology and land use, establishing and improving the regional eco-compensation mechanism, choosing a reasonable price for regional eco-compensation, economizing the intensively-utilized cultivated land, realizing dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land, strengthening the protection of cultivated land in quantity and quality, and improving the environment around them. As such, it is possible for the Chinese Chang-Zhu-Tan region to become a comprehensive reform pilot area, as well as a national resource-saving and environment-friendly society.
Keywords:land use  ecosystems  models  ecosystem service value  sensitivity analysis  GM(1  1)'s model
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