湖北省耕地压力的区域差异及动态演进分析

为充分认识湖北省耕地压力区域差异、动态演进规律,以保障湖北省的粮食安全,该文用修正耕地压力指数测度湖北省及其17个城市耕地压力大小,从时序和空间两方面分析湖北省区域内耕地压力变动差异,并利用核密度估计方法分析湖北省区域内耕地压力演变规律。结果表明:1)2000-2016年,湖北省平均耕地压力为警报压力,区域内人均所需最小耕地面积与实际人均供给面积差距较小,能够实现湖北省区域内粮食安全有效供给。2)2000-2016年,湖北省区域内耕地压力变化不一,其中鄂东区域耕地压力最大,鄂中区域耕地压力最低。3)耕地压力的总体水平在2000-2016年间逐渐减小,但是地区差距也不断加剧,极化现象十分明显。4)分区域看,鄂东地区的耕地压力总体水平不断减小,地区差距较大,两极化现象较突出;鄂中耕地压力水平低,地区差距不大,两极分化不明显;鄂西耕地压力水平居中,存在地区差距,两极分化没有鄂东地区明显。

Regional differences and dynamic evolution of cultivated land pressure in Hubei Province

In order to fully research the regional differences and dynamic evolution of cultivated land pressure to ensure food security in Hubei Province, the revised cultivated land pressure index was used to measure the pressure of cultivated land in Hubei Province and its 17 cities. The difference of cultivated land pressure variation in Hubei Province from time series and spatial level was analyzed. The kernel density estimation method was used to describe the dynamic evolution of cultivated land pressure. The results showed that: 1) During the period 2000-2016, the cultivated land pressure index and the minimum cultivated land area per capita showed a decrease trend. The average cultivated land pressure index was 1.011 in Hubei Province; the cultivated land pressure was warning pressure. The minimum per capita arable land area and per capita actual supply area were small. 2) During the period 2000-2016, the change of cultivated land pressure in Hubei Province is inconsistent. The temporal and spatial changes of cultivated land pressure were obvious, and the situation of cultivated land pressure was severe in the central area of Hubei Province, Wuhan in particular. The cultivated land pressure in western area was weaker than that of eastern area of Hubei Province, and the situation of cultivated land pressure in Xiangyang city was the best. The trend of cultivated land pressure in 17 urban areas was different, but the current situation of cultivated land pressure in Hubei was optimistic and the change was small. At the same time, the pressure of cultivated land in western and eastern Hubei provinces was different. In the eastern region, such as Wuhan, E''zhou and Huangshi, they had higher pressures on cultivated land, but Huanggang and Xianning had better pressure of cultivated land. Only the pressure of cultivated land in Xiangyang City reached the best. The pressure on cultivated land in the other four cities was higher than medium pressure; the annual pressure of cultivated land in Shiyan City was higher than high pressure. 3) The overall level of cultivated land pressure gradually decreased during the sample survey period, but the regional gap increased, and the polarization phenomenon was quite obvious. 4) From the perspective of different regions, the overall level of cultivated land pressure in the eastern Hubei was continuously decreasing, the regional gap was large, and the polarization phenomenon was more prominent; the pressure level of cultivated land in central Hubei was low, the regional gap was not large, and the polarization was not obvious; the pressure of cultivated land in western Hubei horizontally centered, there was a regional gap, and polarization was not obvious as the eastern region.