非洲猪瘟对中国生猪市场和产业发展影响分析

受非洲猪瘟疫情、环保等因素影响,生猪产能快速深度下降,未来2 a猪肉供给偏紧特征明显,生猪价格快速进入新一轮上涨周期,未来养殖收益将连续3 a处于较好水平,未来2 a猪肉进口预期创新高。短期来看,非洲猪瘟影响下产销区供给过剩和供给偏紧交替出现,猪价由区域分化演变为普遍性上涨。受非洲猪瘟防控政策、产业生物安全水平提升需求和近期出台的产业支持政策等因素影响,中国生猪产业的生产和屠宰布局、流通模式、消费结构、猪肉贸易、价格周期等发生深刻变革。非洲猪瘟导致中国生猪养殖模式向适度规模转变,"公司+农户"成为主要发展模式,屠宰产能由销区向产区转移,管理和防疫成本提高,生猪产能恢复速度将较缓慢,猪肉消费加速向冷鲜肉转变,在肉类消费结构中比重将进一步下降,未来猪肉进口保持较高水平将成为常态。要有效实施非洲猪瘟分区防控、保障生猪市场稳定,需要通过加强区域化防控机制的顶层设计和立法,优化非洲猪瘟强制性扑杀补贴机制,加强基层兽医体系建设,实施"政府+企业+养殖户"联防联控,降低疫病传播风险,推动生猪产业可持续发展。

Analysis on effects of African swine fever on China's pig market and industry development

China''s pig industry is facing the pressure and challenges from the epidemic situation of African swine fever (ASF) and environmental protection. In the next 2 years, the supply of pork will be tight for the quick significant decreasing of breeding sows inventory, especially in South China for the African swine fever and the pork outputs in 2019 and 2020 are predicted to decrease by about 20% and 22%-25%, respectively. The price of live pig will enter a new round of rising cycle quickly and reach the climax in the third quarter of next year. Thus, the net income will be at a good level for 3 consecutive years. In short term, the oversupply and tight supply of pork in production and consumption area showed alternatively and the live pig price in different provinces showed the same rising trend after significant different price trends of rising and decreasing. Profound changes have taken place in the distribution of pig production and slaughter, circulation pattern, consumption structure, pork trade and price cycle in long term. For regionalization control policy of the African swine fever, the pig industry in Northeast and Southwest of China will be vertically integrated, and the slaughtering capacity will be transferred from the sales area to the production area and optimized. Pork consumption habit will have to be adjusted to fresh chilled meat for the pig products transportation across provinces have to change from live pig to pork. The ratio of pork among the total meat consumption decreased from 62.7% in 2018 to 50%-55% in 2020 for the replacement of poultry meat. For the gap of pork supply and demand, as well as the price rising, China''s pork import is predicted to reach 2 and 3 million tons in 2019 and 2020, respectively and in the future will maintain higher level even after the pig production capability recovery. The recovery of pig inventory will be slowed down for low breeding sows inventory, high disease risk and lacking of vaccine. To ensure the stability of the pork market and efficient implementation of regionalization control policy of ASF, the top-level design and legislation of regionalization control should be strengthened as well as the community veterinary system in rural areas and the subsidizing mechanism of mandatory culling pigs should be optimized and thus the risk of disease transmission could be reduced by the joint prevention among the government, enterprise and pig farmer, to promote the sustainable development of the pig industry.