基于灰色系统理论的收益还原法在农用地估价中的应用

收益还原法是农用地估价中的常用方法，但是目前利用此法评估农用地地价时，采用实际纯收益代替预期纯收益而导致评估的地价不合理。该文系统地论证了利用灰色系统建模来预测农用地预期纯收益的可行性，并分析了整个建模过程。最后将模型应用到湖北省武穴市农用地估价中。结果表明，应用此模型预测的后验差比值为0.21，小误差频率为1，精度达到一级。利用预测得到的预期纯收益来评估农用地地价与传统方法相比更趋合理，具有实际的应用价值。

Application of income capitalization approach based on grey system theory in the evaluation of agricultrual land price

Income capitalization approach is a prevalent method of evaluating agricultural land price. But using the approach to value the price by adopting actual net return instead of expected net return leads to the unreasonable agricultural land price. The paper demonstrates that forecasting of the anticipative net return by making use of the Grey Model (GM(1,1)) is feasible and analyses the process of modeling. By application of GM in the evaluation of agricultural land price in Wuxue County, the research results showed that the precision was high. Compared with the conventional approach, adopting the GM to evaluate the agricultural land price is reasonable and applied.