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发达地区耕地资源的时空变化及其驱动力实证研究
引用本文:郑海霞,童菊儿,徐扬.发达地区耕地资源的时空变化及其驱动力实证研究[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(4):75-78.
作者姓名:郑海霞  童菊儿  徐扬
作者单位:1. 浙江大学公共管理学院,杭州,310029
2. 绍兴市国土资源局,绍兴,312000
摘    要:利用绍兴市近年的土地利用调查数据及相关社会经济资料,从耕地资源的时序变化和空间差异入手,宏观分析了该市耕地动态变化的趋势和规律,并将主成分分析和多元逐步回归相结合,定量研究了该市耕地数量变化的驱动机制。结果表明:绍兴市耕地资源的时空变化特征显著,耕地呈现出逐年减少的总体趋势;耕地减少以建设占用和以市场为导向的农业结构调整为主,基本建设投入力度的加大和人们生活收入水平的提高是影响耕地减少的主要动因。研究结果将为合理利用和保护耕地、为绍兴市农业的可持续发展提供科学依据,为进一步研究沿海经济发达地区的耕地变化提供借鉴。

关 键 词:耕地变化  驱动因子  主成分分析  绍兴市
文章编号:1002-6819(2007)4-0075-04
收稿时间:5/9/2006 12:00:00 AM
修稿时间:2006-05-092006-11-30

Spatio-temporal changes of farmland resources and their driving forces in developed areas
Zheng Haixia,Tong Ju'er,Xu Yang.Spatio-temporal changes of farmland resources and their driving forces in developed areas[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2007,23(4):75-78.
Authors:Zheng Haixia  Tong Ju'er  Xu Yang
Institution:College of Public Administration, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China;College of Public Administration, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China;Shaoxing Bureau of Land Resources, Shaoxing 312000,
Abstract:According to the statistical and survey data of land use in Shaoxing city, the trend and laws of farmland change, especially, the temporal and the spatial differences, were analyzed. As a result of the principal component analysis(PCA) and multiple stepwise regressive analysis, the main driving forces of farmland changes were discussed. Results show that the spatial-temporal features of farmland changes in Shaoxing are notable, and the farmland decreases year by year. Moreover, the farmland decrease in Shaoxing city in recent years is mainly due to the rapid development of economic, the improving of people's lives and the increasing of capital input, market-oriented agricultural restructuring and city construction have occupied majority of farmland. Research results are not only provide scientific basis for reasonably use and protection of farmland, for sustainable agricultural development in Shaoxing city, but also provide the important reference for further study on farmland changes in the developed littoral areas.
Keywords:cultivated land change  driving factors  PCA  Shaoxing city
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