广州地区土地利用景观格局变化研究

以广州地区为研究区，在遥感与GIS技术的支持下，通过分析斑块和景观两个层次的格局指数变化，研究了20世纪90年代广州地区土地利用格局变化特征，结合马尔科夫过程与元胞自动机模型对广州地区2010年土地利用空间格局进行预测分析。20世纪90年代广州地区土地利用格局变化趋势是建设用地增加，耕地、林地和未利用地减少，水域和果园基本保持稳定；土地利用斑块数目增加，斑块形状指数和分维数下降；景观破碎度和多样性指数上升。21世纪头10年，研究区土地利用格局基本保持20世纪90年代的变化趋势。研究结果表明广州地区在快速城市化的过程中，土地利用格局呈破碎化趋势，斑块形状趋于简单，耕地减少没有明显减缓迹象。因此，迫切需要发挥土地利用规划的控制作用，加强耕地保护措施。

Analyzing and modeling land use pattern changes in rapid urbanization of area: a case study of Guangzhou City, China

Taking Guangzhou as study area, supported by remote sensing and GIS technology, the temporal and spatial pattern characters of land use was analyzed with landscape metrics from both class and landscape level in 1990's in Guangzhou area. The scenarios of land use pattern in 2010 also simulated by combining the Markov process with cellular automata model. The area of construction was rapid increasing during the last ten years in 20th century, at the same time the arable land, woodland and abandoned land areas were decreasing, the orchard and water areas were rarely changed. The number of patches was increasing contrasting landscape fragmentation increasing. In the first ten years in 21st century, land use pattern keep the same change trend in 1990's. The modeling results showed that land use pattern become fragmentized and patches shape become simple in Guangzhou, no evidences showed that the arable land decreasing rate will be slow down in the recent future. It's necessary to enhance the control functions of land use planning and take actives measures to protect arable land.