区域综合食物安全风险预警指标体系

区域综合食物安全是国家宏观食物安全的重要组成部分。构建科学的综合食物安全风险预警指标体系是区域综合食物安全风险预警和有效防范的基础。该文回顾了国内外对食物安全内涵的认识发展过程，明确了综合食物安全必须达到数量安全、质量安全、可持续供给安全3个方面的目标，并构建了区域综合食物安全风险指标体系的理论框架；确定了各预警指标的意义及其计算方法。以湖南省为例进行了实证分析，结果表明：从1992－2005年14 a中湖南省综合食物安全态势总体上处于轻警状况，其中，食物数量安全已经达到了一个相对稳定的安全状态，14 a均为无警；食物质量安全出现9 a中警和5 a重警，安全形势严峻；食物可持续安全发展势态良好，出现1 a中警，5 a轻警，其余为无警。由此可见，目前湖南省综合食物安全风险防范的重点是质量安全，同时要加强可持续供给安全风险的防范。

Early warning index system of regional integrated food security and risk

Regional integrated food security is an important part of national general food security. For the regional integrated food security, establishment of risk index system for early warning is the premise for risk early warning and effective precaution. In this paper, the conceptions of integrative food security were defined (i.e. food quantity security, food quality security and food sustainable supply security), a framework of index system for early warning was established, and instructions on the calculation of each index were achieved. Meanwhile, a case study was carried out in Hunan Province. The results showed that in the 14 years of 1992-2005, the integrated food security in Hunan Province was at a level of slight alarm, in which the food quantity security was at a stable no-alarm level, the food qualitative security at a relatively serious situation due to its 9 years of medium alarm and 5 years of heavy alarm; and the tendency of food sustainable supply security in a positive process for its 1 year of medium alarm, 5 years of slight alarm and the rest years of no-alarm. Thus the quality security should be regarded as the key issue of risk prevention of integrated food security in Hunan Province, at the same time the sustainable supply security should be strengthened.