烟台沿海地区土地利用景观格局演变研究

基于地理信息技术、景观格局分析理论和马尔可夫模型，利用1986、1992、2000和2004年4期影像，分析了烟台沿海地区土地利用类型变化及其景观格局动态特征。结果显示，近20年来，烟台沿海地区各种土地类型变化及其相互转化频繁。水域、果园和建设用地分别增加335.61%、70.43%和134.48%，而耕地、林地分别减少18.63%和20.75%。各种土地利用类型空间格局变化显著，耕地、果园破碎度增加，连通性降低，水域、林地和建设用地则趋于集中，连通性增强，景观类型有向多元化方向发展的趋势。马尔可夫模型预测表明，从2022年至平稳期，耕地、林地和果园面积将持续减少，水域和建设用地将逐年增加，耕地保护与建设用地扩张之间的矛盾将更加突出。

Changes of land use and landscape pattern in Yantai coastland areas

Based on translated data from remote sensing TM imageries in 1986, 1992, 2000 and 2004, the dynamic features of land use change and landscapes pattern at the coastland in Yantai were analyzed using GIS techology, landscape pattern theory landscape pattern. The results indicate that water area, orchard and construction land increase by 335.61%, 70.43% and 134.48%, respectively, farmland and forest land decrease by 18.63% and 20.75%, respectively, which show that the kinds of land use types change frequently in recent 20 years. At the same time, landscape pattern at Yantai coastland change significantly during the research phase. The fragmentation index of farmland and orchard increases and their connectedness reduce; while the concentration degree of water body, forest land and construction land increases respectively, the connectedness boosts up, which suggest that the landscape patterns have the trend of more orientation development. Predicted results by Markov model show that the farmland, orchard land and forest land will keep decreasing, while the water area and construction land would increase year after year from 2022 to placidity period. It suggestes that the contradiction between the farmland preservation and expansion of construction land will be more pronounced.