基于IPCC排放因子法估算碳足迹的京津冀生态补偿量化

构建合理的生态补偿量化标准关系着京津冀区域的健康发展。采用IPCC排放因子法计算京津冀地区2006-2015年的碳足迹,结果表明:10 a间京津冀地区碳足迹变化趋势分为2个阶段,2006到2013呈现快速增长趋势,年增长率约为8.5%,2013年之后基本保持不变;考虑森林、草地、农用地的固碳能力的前提下,测算了京津冀地区2006-2015年的碳承载力,结果表明:2009年京津冀地区的碳承载力有明显增高,之后基本保持平稳,略有提升;为了对比不同区域内(人口和区域面积)碳赤字对生态的影响,提出了碳赤字敏感度,进而利用碳赤字敏感度构建了生态补偿因子的概念,并据此确定京津冀三区生态补偿的量化标准,结果表明:河北和北京每年都应得到天津支付的一定额度的生态补偿,其中河北2012年应获得补偿最多(161亿元),北京2013年最多(61.5亿元)。研究结果对加快建立完善的京津冀横向生态补偿机制有参考意义。

Quantification of ecological compensation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei based on carbon footprint calculated using emission factor method proposed by IPCC

Abstract: China has paid more and more attention to the construction of the ecological civilization society. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is a significant ecological and economic circle, so the construction of appropriate quantitative standards for ecological compensation is closely related to the healthy development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The carbon footprint of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2006 to 2015 was calculated using the emission factor method proposed by IPCC. Results showed a two-stage trend of carbon footprint of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during those 10 years. There was a rapid increase with annual growth rate at about 8.5% from 2006 to 2013, then it maintained in the level after 2013. The carbon footprint of Hebei province was far greater than the other two cities, and even it had the difference in magnitude. Based on carbon sequestration capacity of forest, grassland and cropland, carbon bearing capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2006 to 2015 was estimated. The results showed that carbon bearing capacity significantly increased in 2009, and then it maintained in the level despite of a slight increase. The carbon bearing capacity of Hebei province was much stronger than that of Beijing and Tianjin, which was nearly 8 times of the sum of Beijing and Tianjin in 2015, and that was accordance with the carbon footprint trend. Hebei province had a large amount of carbon emission, but also had large carbon bearing capacity. The carbon deficit of Tianjin and Hebei was highest in 2013, with 251.6 million ton and 946.5 million ton respectively. The extreme point of carbon deficit in Beijing appeared in 2010, which reached 179.4 million ton. Horizontal comparison found that carbon budget of Hebei is much higher than the others, about 4 times of Tianjin and 5 times of Beijing in 2013, due to the huge energy consumption. By introducing the concept of sensitivity of carbon deficit, its ecological effects in different regions with various populations and areas were compared. Ecological compensation factors were further proposed to determine quantitative standards of ecological compensation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Results showed that Hebei and Beijing belong to the compensation receptor absolutely among these 3 regions, Tianjin was the absolute subject of compensation, Tianjin should pay compensation to the others at 12.6-15.2 billion yuan before 2009, and then surged to 20 billion yuan after 2010 with the growth rate of 42.9%. Hebei was obtained ecological compensation from Tianjin city in 2006-2015, the amount was increased from 11.3 billion yuan to 15.5 billion yuan, of which the extreme point appeared in 2012 (16.1 billion yuan). Beijing''s deserved compensation from Tianjin in 2006-2015 was no more than 6.2 billion yuan, of which the extreme point occurred in 2008, only 1 billion 230 million yuan. A particular quantifiable evaluation model is put forward in this study, and this research could provide results to support the establishment and improvement of apropriate mechanism of ecological compensation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.