浙江省耕地多功能价值时空变化与权衡-协同关系

耕地多功能价值的时空演变与权衡-协同关系测度对于深化耕地可持续利用和管理具有重要意义。该研究以经济快速发展地区浙江省为例,采用价值量化方法对2000、2010和2015年浙江省耕地多功能进行价值评估并分析其时空变化特征。运用Spearman秩相关系数法、双变量空间自相关模型以及可拓展随机性环境影响评估(StochasticImpactsby Regression on Population,Affluence and Technology,STIRPAT)模型探究耕地多功能之间的权衡-协同关系及影响因素。结果表明:1)2000—2015年浙江省耕地多功能总价值下降,地均耕地多功能价值呈现先下降后上升的趋势。其中气体调节、水源涵养和社会保障功能价值下降明显,食物生产和美学景观功能价值增加;耕地多功能总价值在空间上呈现北高南低的分布格局,2000—2015年大部分县市耕地多功能总价值均有不同程度的下降,西南山地丘陵区耕地多功能总价值有所提升。2)浙江省耕地多功能之间主要表现为协同关系,各项功能之间的协同-权衡关系存在空间异质性;2000—2015年,浙江省耕地多功能协同关系总体减弱,在空间上主要表现为高值协同区减少。3)城镇居民可支配收入和地均农业机械总动力对耕地多功能总价值有负面影响,农村居民可支配收入增加有助于耕地多功能总价值的提升。该研究成果可为科学划定耕地利用与保护区,促进耕地多功能的协同利用和提升耕地资源价值提供科学依据。

Spatial-temporal change, trade-off and synergy relationships of cropland multifunctional value in Zhejiang Province, China

Abstract: Multifunctional Agriculture (MFA) management has been increasingly important for sustainable cropland utilization in recent years. The farmland loss and changing agricultural activities have posed serious impacts on the structure and functions of cropland in the rapid urbanization. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics, the trade-off and synergy relationships of multifunctional cropland. In this study, taking Zhejiang Province, a representative region with rapid social-economic development in China as an example, a series of widely used quantitative methods were employed to systematically evaluate cropland multifunctional value on the county scale. According to four dimensions of cropland production, ecological, social, and cultural functions, eight main functions of cropland were identified, including food production, atmosphere regulation, environmental purification, water conservation, biodiversity, agricultural pollution, social security, and cultural leisure. Spearman''s rank correlation coefficient method, bivariate local spatial autocorrelation model and Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model were used to investigate the trade-off and synergy relationships among cropland multifunctions, and the social-economic driving factors. The data was collected from Zhejiang Statistical Yearbook (2001-2016); digital land use/cover maps for 2000, 2010 and 2015 were obtained from the Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection; the precipitation data came from the National Meteorological Information Center; and the soil type data of Zhejiang Province was from the second soil survey database of China. The results showed that: 1)the total value of cropland multifunctionality displayed a declined trend during 2000 and 2015, while the value of cropland multifunctionality per hectare decreased first and then gradually increased. The value of atmospheric regulation, water conservation and social security decreased significantly. Meanwhile, the value of food production remained constant, whereas, the value of cultural leisure increased rapidly. The total value of cropland multifunctionality showed different spatial characteristics, indicating high values in the north, but low in the south of Zhejiang Province. In the counties, Hangzhou City showed the highest value, while the lowest value was in Shengsi County. The cropland multifunctional value decreased in many counties to some degree, but the value increased dramatically in the southwest mountainous areas. 2) Synergy relationships were dominant among cropland multifunction, showing spatial heterogeneity. The high-high synergy areas were distributed in Hangzhou and Shaoxing cities, while the low-low synergy areas were clustered in Lishui and Quzhou cities in southwestern Zhejiang Province, where the low-high and high-low trade-off areas were distributed around the synergy areas. During 2000 and 2015, synergy relationships among cropland multifunctions totally weakened, as the decrease in the number of high-high synergy areas. 3) Social-economic system was proved to be related closely with cropland multifunctional value. Specifically, the disposable income of urban residents and the total power of agricultural machinery have negative impacts on the multifunctional value of cropland per hectare. The increase in the disposable income of rural residents can be conducive to promote the multifunctional value of cropland per hectare. It infers that the food production of cropland can be balanced with other functions, including ecological, social, and cultural functions, in order to develop multifunctional agriculture, and further to maximize the human welfare that provided by cropland production system. The findings can provide an important decision-making support to delimit cropland use and protection zone, and further to promote the overall coordinated utilization of multifunctional cropland.