湖北县域土地整治新增耕地的时空特征及其影响因素分析

为加强对湖北省土地整治新增耕地数量时空格局的认识,以2001-2010年批复实施的土地整治项目为基础,以县域为研究单元,运用区位基尼系数、地理集中度和地理探测器模型等研究方法,分析了全省土地整治新增耕地数量的时空差异及其影响因素。结果表明:随着城镇化的快速发展和土地整治资金、技术的持续投入,2001-2010年湖北省土地整治新增耕地总量呈显著增长趋势,地理分布上表现为高度集聚;2001-2010年县域新增耕地数量具有明显的地域差异性,其地理重心呈现了由西向东、由南向北偏移的运动轨迹;县域新增耕地来源结构以整理来源型、开发-整理来源型和综合来源型为主,区域差异特征明显,鄂西南山地区、鄂中平原区和鄂东丘陵区的新增耕地主要为整理来源型,鄂北岗地区主要为开发-整理来源型,鄂西北山地区以及黄石、随州、孝感等地多为综合来源型;2010年县域新增耕地数量空间格局的主要影响因子及其影响力为耕地面积(24.26%)、地貌类型(23.65%)、项目投资(19.94%)、建设规模(18.16%)和人均GDP(11.05%),自然条件和土地整治政策为主要影响要素,社会经济要素对2010年新增耕地数量空间分异的影响偏小。该研究为湖北省土地整治战略制定和重大工程布局安排提供科学依据。

Spatial-temporal characteristics and impact factors of newly increased farmland by land consolidation in Hubei province at county level

Abstract: The newly increased cultivated land obtained through land consolidation has attracted great attention from the Chinese government and scholars since it concerns cultivated land protection and national food security. Hubei province is an important region for land consolidation in China amid serious cultivated land conversion and increasing demand of construction land due to rapid urbanization. In this paper, the spatial-temporal differences in 2001-2010 and the impact factors of this spatial difference in 2010 were analyzed to better understand the distribution of the newly increased cultivated land obtained through land consolidation in the province at the county level. All data used were acquired mainly from the land consolidation accounts and the statistical yearbooks. The research methods included the locational Gini-coefficient, geographic concentration and geographical detectors. Compared to other detective spatial analysis methods, the geographical detector was usable for both quantitative data and nominal data to extract the implicit interrelationships between explanatory variables and response variables. The results showed that 1) In 2001-2010, the amount of newly increased cultivated land obtained through land consolidation of the whole province presented a trend of significant growth, and the geographical distribution of the newly increased cultivated land was also highly concentrated. The Gini coefficient, which was 0.809 in 2001, fell straight to the lowest of 0.540 in 2009 and then rose abruptly to 0.701 in 2010. 2) Influenced by the topography and the land consolidation policy of Hubei province, the newly increased cultivated land at the county level presented obvious regional differences in 2001-2010. The cluster areas of the newly increased cultivated land at the county level changed from the mountainous areas of West Hubei to the hilly areas of East Hubei, then from the plain areas of Central Hubei to the mound areas of North Hubei over the last 10 years. 3) The source structure of the newly increased cultivated land in Hubei Province at the county level mainly included the land consolidation type, development-consolidation type and comprehensive type, while the newly increased cultivated land mainly came from land consolidation and land reclamation in Hubei province. To be more specific, most of the cultivated land in mountainous areas of Southwest Hubei, the plain areas of Central Hubei and the hilly areas of East Hubei came from land consolidation, while in the mound areas of North Hubei, from land development-consolidation. The source structure belonged to the comprehensive type in the mountainous areas of Northwest Hubei and in most counties of Huangshi, Suizhou and Xiaogan. 4) It turned out that the main impact factors and their explanatory power of the spatial-temporal pattern of the structure of the newly increased cultivated land at the county level in 2010 were as follows: cultivated land area (24.26%), topography (23.65%), project investment (19.94%), construction scale (18.16%) and per capita GDP (11.05%). It can be easily found that natural conditions and the land consolidation policy were the leading factors, while the influence of the social and economic elements was quite small in 2010. It was suggested to coordinate the relationship between ecological construction and cultivated land protection in the mound areas of North Hubei and mountainous areas of Northwest Hubei. On the premise of effective protection of the ecological environment, it was necessary to further strengthen scientific guidance and investment in the land consolidation in future in the mountainous areas of Southwest Hubei. The plain areas of Central Hubei and the hilly areas of East Hubei should actively explore the urban and rural construction land experiments, and make an overall arrangement for the planning layout of construction land and farmland to promote the new rural construction and balance urban and rural development. The results provided a scientific basis for developing the land consolidation strategy, arranging major land consolidation projects, and making differential land consolidation policies for different regions.