河南省农业水旱灾害风险评估与时空分布特征

为了加强河南省农业水旱灾害的风险评估和管理,该文利用信息扩散模型和风险等级划分,对河南省农业水旱灾害风险进行评估与时空特征研究,从而得出不同程度水旱灾害发生的可能性及其时空特点。研究结果表明:河南省17个市的农业水旱灾害风险概率均较大,且旱灾风险概率、风险等级、成灾面积均大于水灾;农业水灾风险空间分布表现出西北到东南风险概率增加的特点,低风险区为豫西、豫北区,高风险区主要是豫东、豫南区,尤其是黄淮4市风险较高;旱灾风险空间分布表现出西部、南部大于东部和北部的特点,豫北区的安阳、新乡、濮阳风险较小,豫西、豫南区则处于高风险。该研究为河南省粮食核心区战略地位的提升及灾害防治提供了依据。

Risk assessment and spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of flood and drought disasters in Henan province

In order to strengthen risk assessment and management of the agricultural flood and drought disaster, the flood and drought disaster in Henan province was evaluated in this study with the information diffusion model and risk rank division, and then flood and drought disaster possibilities at different levels, as well as the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution were obtained. The results showed that the risk probability of floods and drought disaster of Henan province were all larger, and the risk probability, risk rank, disaster forming area was larger than that of flood. The risk probability of floods increased from northwest to southeast at spatial-temporal distribution. The higher risk of floods was in west and north of Henan province, and the lower risk of floods was in east and south of Henan province, especially in Huang Huai area. The drought risk was more serious in west and south than that in east and north of Henan province. The lower disk of drought was in Anyang, Xinxiang and Puyang city and higher disk of drought was in west and south of Henan province. The study provides a basis for promotion strategic position of grain core area and disaster prevention in Henan province.