基于生态安全格局的干旱内陆河流域土地利用优化配置分区

为提高干旱内陆地区土地利用效率，促进土地资源可持续利用，该文以典型干旱内陆河流域石羊河为例，将GIS技术和土地利用优化空间配置模型应用到该流域土地利用优化配置研究中，提出了一种基于生态安全格局的土地利用优化配置新方法，并借助1986年、2000年和2014年3期土地利用数据对石羊河流域生态安全格局情景、耕地保护情景和自然发展情景3种模式下2030年的土地利用结构和布局进行了优化配置研究。研究结果表明：在生态安全情景下2030年耕地面积减少314.41 km2（5.32%），但林地和草地面积分别增加1424.17 km2（33.85%）和1485.13 km2（12.05%），同时未利用地也有较大幅度减少；而耕地保护情景则以土地开发和整治及宅基地还耕为主要目标，使得耕地到2030年增加5.85%（386.53 km2），林地和草地分别增加7.61%（229.38 km2）和0.77%（84.58 km2），而未利用地则减少3.91%（789.92 km2）；自然发展情景下其耕地、林地和草地到2030年均有减少，建设用地则有较大幅度增长。通过对3种综合考虑石羊河流域社会经济、生态及耕地保护等多方面的因素，研究结果认为耕地保护情景更为合理，既能保持耕地面积不减少，又能兼顾考虑生态恢复和城镇发展等方面的需求，而其它2种可为耕地保护情景进行补充和局部修正。

Configuration partition of land use optimization in arid inland river basin based on ecological security pattern

Abstract: To solve the increasingly serious ecological problem and shortage of water and soil resource during the development of social and economy and urbanization process, the reasonable determination of the land use structure and layout in future is the key. In this paper, the GIS (geographic information system) technology and the MCR (minimum cumulative resistance) model as well as the CLUE-S (conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent) model were applied to optimize the land use structure and its allocation in Shiyang river basin. First, the correct driving factors were selected to make prediction map. In this paper, 18 driving factors of land use were selected for logistic regression. Besides, ecological security patterns were constructed to maintain the basic ecosystem services of Shiyang river basin based on the theory of landscape security pattern. Second, we set the corresponding land use change and spatial optimizing allocation of the basin in 2030 under 3 development modes by MCR model and CLUE-S model, and then predicted the land use distribution under an ecological security pattern scenario, a farmland protection scenario, and a free development scenario. Third, taking the optimization of land use resources as an objective, the spatial distributions of energy exchange and transfer resistance and cost resistance of the land use resources in Shiyang river basin were analyzed according to the minimum accumulative resistance surface, the accumulative cost resistance model and the surface dissipative technology. The result showed that Shiyang river basin could be divided into 6 types which were core area of ecological protection, key area to be optimized, potential optimal allocation area, key area of ecological protection, ecological restoration-concern area and ecological comprehensive management area according to the configuration methods. Besides, The results showed that the farmland area decreased by 314.41 km2 (about 5.32%), but the woodland and grassland increased evidently by the area of 1 424.17 km2 (about 33.85%) and 1485.13 km2 (about 12.05%) respectively and unused land also had a great reduction under an ecological security pattern scenario. In contrast, the farmland area increased by 5.85% in 2030 (about 386.53 km2), woodland and grassland also increased by 7.61% (229.38 km2) and 0.77% (84.58 km2) respectively, and unused land reduced by 3.91%, about 789.92 km2 under a farmland protection scenario. This scenario took the land use exploitation and renovation as well as homestead consolidation as the main objectives, and controlled the urban and residential land expansion scientifically and effectively. In a free development scenario, the current free development situation and the government macro policy guidance were comprehensively considered and the quantity and spatial structure development were also taken into consideration. Comprehensively considering the sustainable development in Shiyang river basin from the perspective of social, economic, ecological development and farmland protection, the free development scenario is relatively reasonable, and it can not only maintain the farmland increase, but also consider the demand of the ecological restoration and urban development. The other 2 scenarios can be a supplement for regional land optimal allocation.