不同空间约束条件下的城镇土地利用变化多预案模拟

为研究不同预案下辛庄镇未来几十年的土地利用变化情况，基于高分辨率遥感影像获取辛庄镇四期土地利用历史数据，结合GIS空间分析技术，从城镇土地利用发展趋势、耕地保护和生态安全角度设计了目前趋势发展、城镇规划和基本农田保护、生态环境保护3种预案，对研究区土地利用变化进行相应约束，利用CLUE-S模型模拟不同预案下辛庄镇未来20 a土地利用变化过程，并从时空特征、空间格局和生态风险等方面对不同预案下的土地利用预测结果进行比较分析。结果表明，在设计的3种预案下，未来的村镇建设用地均将持续增加，其中目前趋势发展预案尤为显著，并以消耗大量的耕地资源为代价。不同预案下的土地利用变化特征、景观格局和生态安全存在明显的分异特征，综合比较结果表明城镇规划和基本农田保护预案是辛庄镇未来土地利用变化的推荐预案。CLUE-S模型模拟结果能较好地反映不同约束条件下的未来土地利用变化以及潜在生态风险，基于该模型的预案设计和空间模拟方法可很好地辅助土地利用规划决策。

Scenarios simulation of town land use change under different spatial constraints

The purpose of the paper is to study the land use change under different scenarios of Xinzhuang Town in the future decades. Based on land-use historical data extracted from four periods high-resolution remote sensing images of Xinzhuang Town, integrated with GIS spatial analysis technology, three scenarios were designed: 1) current trend (CT), 2) urban planning and basic farmland protection (PF), 3) ecological and environmental protection (EE), under current land-use trend, farmland protection and ecological safety, to make different spatial constraints. The CLUE-S model was used to forecast land use change in the next 20 years of Xinzhuang Town under different scenarios, and the spatio-temporal characteristics, spatial pattern and ecological risks of different modeling results were compared. The results showed that Xinzhuang Town would be faced with continuous construction land increasing, and the scenario CT would be the most significant, and a large amount of farmland would be lost under all scenarios. But the land use change characteristics, landscape pattern and ecological security showed obvious differentiation under different scenarios. It is concluded that the scenario PF is the recommended future land use change scenario from comprehensively compared results. Simulation results of CLUE-S model can reflect future land use change and potential ecological risk of different constraints, and the scenario design and spatial modeling method of CLUE-S model will be useful for decision-making of land use plan.