长江中游生态系统服务供需平衡与居民福祉耦合的时空特征

生态系统服务供给、需求与居民福祉的相互复杂关系是自然生态系统和社会经济系统研究中重要的交叉科学问题，也是生态系统服务和居民福祉研究的热点难点问题和矛盾多发领域。然而，已有研究更为关注生态系统服务供给对居民福祉的贡献，忽视了生态系统服务需求以及供需平衡对居民福祉的影响。选择长江中游地区作为研究靶区和2000—2018年作为研究时段，建立生态系统服务供需量化矩阵测度生态系统服务供需平衡，采用年度组合赋权法和线性函数加权法评估居民福祉，引入弹性系数模型划分生态系统服务供需平衡与居民福祉耦合关系类型，并进一步研究其时空特征。结果表明：1）生态系统服务供需平衡与居民福祉耦合关系可划分为“供需改善－福祉增加”“供需恶化－福祉增加”“供需改善－福祉减少”以及“供需恶化－福祉减少”4种，分别对应最优、次优、次差以及最差耦合关系类型；2）长江中游地区生态系统服务供需平衡与居民综合福祉耦合关系表现为以权衡关系为主导且逐渐增强，其中“供需恶化－福祉增加”县域单元占比由2000—2010年的81.99%增至2010—2018年的91.57%；3）生态系统服务供需平衡与居民福祉耦合关系会随着福祉类型、服务类型、空间尺度、时间范围、经济社会发展水平等表现出不同形式的反馈。长江中游地区各县域单元和有关部门应当结合地区自然地理条件、经济发展水平等多方面因素，因地制宜、因时制宜地推进生态环境保护与修复工程，尽可能地规避“生态诅咒”或“生态魔咒”效应，充分发挥经济社会发展过程中的“生态祝福”效应。

Spatiotemporal coupling relationship between supply-demand balance of ecosystem services and welfare of residents in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

A major interdisciplinary issue can be the interaction between the supply and demand of ecosystem services, as well as the welfare of residents in the natural and socioeconomic system. Frequent contradictions need to be balanced in the research on the ecosystem and residents'' welfare. However, previous studies have focused only on the contribution rate of the supply of ecosystem services to residents'' welfare. A tradeoff can consider the demand and supply-demand balance of ecosystem services. Particularly, there has been a dramatic change in the relationship between the supply-demand balance of ecosystem services and welfare residents in recent years. The rapid economic growth and dramatic land use have led to a decrease in supply while an increase in demand for ecosystem services. The spatial heterogeneity of supply-demand levels can also lead to the deterioration of the supply-demand of ecosystem services, even the ecological environment and damage to residents'' well-being. This study aims to focus on the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (MRYR) in the period from 2000 to 2018. A quantitative matrix was established to measure the supply-demand balance of ecosystem services. The annual combined empowerment and linear function weighting were employed to accurately assess the score of residents'' welfare. The elasticity coefficient model was then used to determine the coupling relationship between the supply-demand balance of ecosystem service and the welfare of residents. Four types were divided for the coupling relationship between supply-demand balance on the ecosystem services and welfare of residents: supply-demand improving and welfare increases, deteriorated supply-demand but welfare increases, supply-demand improving but welfare decreases, as well as the deteriorated supply-demand and welfare decreases, representing by the optimal, sub-optimal, sub-poor, and worst relationships, respectively. A tradeoff relationship was dominated gradually over time. The proportion of county units with deteriorated supply-demand but welfare increase increased from 81.99% in 2000-2010 to 91.57% in 2010-2018. However, both stability and fluctuation were also observed. The former was dominated by the vast majority of counties that remained the deteriorated supply-demand but welfare increases; the latter was a significant contraction of counties with supply-demand improving and welfare increases. The feedback depended mainly on the welfare type, services type, spatial scale, time scale, and economic-social development level. The socioeconomic development was transitioned from the primary product production stage II to the late industrialization stage from 2000 to 2018. However, there were outstanding spatial differences in the socioeconomic development. The rapid urbanization and industrialization zones continued to allocate excessive resources and energy toward economic growth without environmental protection. Economic growth showed the potential to enhance the material prosperity and life quality of residents, offsetting the adverse effects of the supply-demand deterioration in the ecosystem services on residents'' safety and health welfare. Consequently, the comprehensive welfare of residents can be enhanced for the coordinated development between the ecological environment and residents'' welfare in the rapidly urbanizing and industrializing areas. The findings can also provide a strong reference for the decision-making on regional development.