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1980-2008年环渤海地区县域粮食的时空动态变化及分析
引用本文:刘 玉,郭丽英,刘彦随.1980-2008年环渤海地区县域粮食的时空动态变化及分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(12):230-236.
作者姓名:刘 玉  郭丽英  刘彦随
作者单位:1. 北京农业信息技术研究中心,北京100097;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101
2. 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京,100081
3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101
基金项目:中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室2012年度开放基金资助课题;国家自然科学基金资助项目(41130748;41101162)
摘    要:为了揭示粮食生产的异质性,应用基尼系数、探索性空间数据分析法(exploratory spatial data analysis,ESDA)和空间误差模型(spatial error model,SEM),深入分析了1980-2008年环渤海地区县域粮食生产的时空动态特征及其影响因素。结果表明,环渤海地区粮食产量增加了3647×104t,县域粮食生产以上升为主,并逐步向平原区和产量大县集中;县域粮食总产量空间自相关性显著且空间差异增大,人均粮食极化态势加剧;粮食生产热点区向内陆平原区偏移,辽宁中北部和山东西部地区的粮食总产量明显增加,坝上高原区和冀北辽西山地丘陵区的粮食总产量下降,县域粮食供需矛盾的区域差异加剧。最后,SEM模型分析表明,县域耕地面积、种植结构、前期粮食产量是县域粮食格局的重要影响因素。该研究结果可为环渤海地区粮食生产布局与优化和粮食生产政策制定提供科学依据。

关 键 词:粮食  生产  地理信息系统  基尼系数  探索性空间数据分析法  时空动态  环渤海地区
收稿时间:2011/10/13 0:00:00
修稿时间:2012/5/18 0:00:00

Spatial-temporal dynamic change and analysis of grain production in county scale in Bohai Rim from 1980 to 2008
Liu Yu,Guo Liying and Liu Yansui.Spatial-temporal dynamic change and analysis of grain production in county scale in Bohai Rim from 1980 to 2008[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(12):230-236.
Authors:Liu Yu  Guo Liying and Liu Yansui
Institution:2※ (1. Beijing Agriculture Information Technology Research Center, Beijing 100097, China; 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences ,Beijing 100101,China; 3. Institute of Natural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)
Abstract:In order to reveal the heterogeneity of grain production, the spatiotemporal dynamic variation of grain production from 1980 to 2008 and related influencing factors at county level in Bohai Rim was carried out based on Gini coefficient, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial error mode (SEM). The following results were obtained: the amount of grain production increased by 3647×104 t, grain production in 282 counties showed an upward trend and gradually concentrated in the plain area and countries whose grain production was higher; grain production at county level in area along Bohai Rim had a strong spatial autocorrelation and regional grain difference will increase in the future, and the polarization trend of per capital grain more serious; the counties with higher grain production gathered in Liaohe plain and western Shandong province, while the lower grain production gathered in mountainous-hilly areas and tableland areas; the main factors which affected the regional pattern of grain production were the arable land area, cropping structure, grain production in former term. This research provides a scientific basis for optimizing grain production distribution and establishing grain production policies.
Keywords:grain  production  geographic information systems  Gini coefficient  exploratory spatial data analysis  spatial-temporal change  area along Bohai Rim
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