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基于GIS和Markov模型的内蒙古农牧交错带土地利用变化
引用本文:郭碧云,张广军.基于GIS和Markov模型的内蒙古农牧交错带土地利用变化[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(12):291-298.
作者姓名:郭碧云  张广军
作者单位:1. 西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,杨凌712100;密西根州立大学林业科学系,东兰辛48823
2. 西北农林科技大学资源环境学院,杨凌,712100
基金项目:美国NSF项目(0507948,0624018)
摘    要:为了研究人类活动对农牧交错带土地利用类型的空间分布、转化及对生态环境的影响,该文以内蒙古农牧交错带太仆寺旗为例,运用RS和GIS技术对该区域近30 a土地利用/覆被变化及景观格局空间变化进行分析,并在此基础上运用马尔可夫(Markov)模型对未来20 a土地利用变化进行预测。结果表明,近30 a来,草地和农业用地面积在该研究区占居主导地位,并且它们之间发生着明显的相互转化。1975-1990年,草地主要向农业用地转移,1990-2004年农业用地主要转化为草地,草地面积增加;1975-2000年,研究区景观多样性升高,蔓延度指数下降,破碎化程度加剧;2000-2004年景观内优势斑块具有了很好的连接性,聚集度增大,整体景观格局破碎化程度降低;人为干扰强度的变化对土地利用结构的变化具有重要作用,土地利用强度主要受人口数量以及国家土地利用政策的影响;在未来20 a间农业用地面积会继续减小,草地、未利用土地面积将有小幅度降低,林地面积会显著增加。实行合理的土地利用政策,利用生态系统自身的修复功能进行生态环境治理是该地区生态恢复的基本途径。

关 键 词:GIS,模型,土地利用,景观格局,Markov,太仆寺旗
收稿时间:2009/6/28 0:00:00
修稿时间:2009/11/24 0:00:00

Land use change in farming-pastoral region of Inner Mongolia based on GIS and Markov model
Guo Biyun and Zhang Guangjun.Land use change in farming-pastoral region of Inner Mongolia based on GIS and Markov model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2009,25(12):291-298.
Authors:Guo Biyun and Zhang Guangjun
Institution:1. College of Resources and Environment, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling 712100, China; 2. Department of Forestry, Michigan State University, East Lansing 48823, U.S.A. and 1. College of Resources and Environment, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling 712100, China
Abstract:For studying the influence of human activity on spatial distribution, transformation of land use type and ecological environment in farming-pastoral region, Taipusi Qi in Inner Mongolia was selected to analyze the change of land use, land cover and spatial landscape pattern in the past 30 years by remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS). The Markov model was applied to predict land use variation in the following 20 years. The results showed that grassland and farmland were the main land use types of research area with obvious reciprocal transformation. Grassland was mainly transferred to farmland in 1975-1990. Farmland was chiefly converted to grassland, and grassland tended to increase in 1990-2004. The landscape diversity in the study area rose with the contagion index decreasing and fragmentation degree being intensified during 1975-2000. The advantageous patches maintained good connectivity with the increasing patch cohesion index and the decreasing landscape fragmentation during 2000-2004. The change of human interference intensity played an important role on the variation of land use structure. Land use intensity was mainly affected by the changes in population as well as national land use policies. In the following 20 years, the agriculture land area would tend to decrease, the grassland and unused land area would have a slight reduction by contrasting the increasing the forest land area notably. It is a basic approach to ecological restoration by implementing rational land use policies and utilizing ecosystem self-repair functions.
Keywords:geographic information system  models  land use  landscape pattern  Markov  Taipusi Qi
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