基于压力-状态-响应模型的土地整治空间格局及障碍诊断

科学开展土地整治空间格局及其影响因素分析,是明确区域土地整治方向、分解整治规划指标和实施差别化整治策略的重要依据。该文以"压力-状态-响应"的概念框架作为理论依据,构建土地整治的PSR(pressure-state-response)评价指标体系,综合熵权TOPSIS模型、组合矩阵模型和障碍度模型等系统算法,划分土地整治空间格局,探讨不同区域土地整治的障碍因素及调控策略,基本形成了土地整治空间区划的理论与方法体系。实证分析表明:1)山东省139个县(市、区)中土地整治压力分值高于全省均值的比例为69.04%,状态和响应分值低于全省均值的比例分别为50.68%和70.51%,表明山东省整体土地整治的压力较高、状态水平中等和响应程度偏低。2)山东省"3+6"的土地整治空间格局中,3大主区包含县(市、区)的数量比例相对均衡,分别是37.41%、28.78%和33.81%,空间分布也比较集中;而对应6种整治类型的县(市、区)数量比例差异较大,在7.91%~20.86%之间,且空间异质性显著;说明土地整治空间区划过程中需要将"自上而下"的区域综合评价与"自下而上"的区域差异识别统筹兼顾。3)山东省土地整治障碍因子作用频次具有区域相似性和差异性的双重特征,土地整治潜力和经济支撑能力的薄弱是约束土地整治响应的主要阻力,建议引入市场机制,探讨因地制宜的多元治理模式。本研究是对"自下而上"土地整治空间格局划分方法的有效补充,藉此完善土地整治区划的理论与方法,并为"十三五"土地整治规划提供有益参考。

Land consolidation spatial pattern and diagnosis of its obstacle factors based on pressure-state-response model

Abstract: Spatial pattern analysis of land consolidation is to classify space for different conditions of land consolidation. It not only helps to clear regional land management direction and implementation strategy, but also is the important basis of task decomposition and project arrangement of land consolidation, which has become the necessary content of land consolidation planning. Therefore, scientifically carrying out the analysis of spatial pattern of land consolidation and its impact factor is important theoretical basis to clear the direction of regional land consolidation and make differential strategies in land consolation planning. Firstly, the paper made the concept framework of pressure-state-response (PSR) as theoretical basis, and built the PSR evaluation system of land consolidation with 18 indices. Secondly, the urgency, suitability and motivation of land consolidation were analyzed through applying the entropy weight TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution) model, and the analysis of the spatial pattern and types of land consolidation was carried out with the PSR combination matrix model. At last, the main obstacle factors of land consolidation in different regions and its frequencies were analyzed by using the obstacle degree model, and some different optimization strategies were proposed. Based on the data of the land consolidation planning and projects from 2011 to 2015 at the district or county level in Shandong Province, the empirical analysis showed that: (1) 69.04% of the counties on the P (pressure) value were higher than provincial average, 50.68% of the counties on the S (state) value were lower than provincial average, and 70.51% of the counties on the R (response) value were lower than provincial average, which indicated that the provincial comprehensive pressure of land use was high, the integrated suitability conditions was in the medium level, and the enthusiasm of land consolidation was low. (2) The spatial pattern of land consolidation in Shandong Province was divided into prior, focused and moderate consolidation area with the corresponding 6 types of regulation based on PSR grading strength and their combination characteristics. The number ratios of counties in 3 main areas were 37.41%, 28.78% and 33.81% respectively, and their spatial distribution was relatively concentrated. But the number ratios of counties for 6 types were 20.86%, 16.55%, 20.86%, 7.91%, 13.67% and 20.14%, respectively, and the spatial heterogeneity of land consolidation pattern was significant. Therefore, regional comprehensive evaluation of "top-down" and difference identification of "bottom up" should be balanced in the process of land consolidation space division. (3) The obstacle factors of land consolidation PSR system and their working frequencies both had a certain regional similarity and an obvious spatial heterogeneity. There were 3 similar aspects in different areas, which were high pressure on cultivated land occupancy, low potential of land development and reclamation and weak planning response on rural residential consolidation. From prior area to focused area and moderate area, the obstacle factors'' working frequency of land consolidation PSR system was becoming higher, the difficulty was becoming bigger and the urgency was becoming stronger for carrying out land consolidation. (4) Land consolidation potential difference and funding gap widening between regions were the main causes to hinder the land consolidation response. We suggested that Shandong should introduce market mechanism and attract social capital investment to promote land consolation development, and discuss efficient governance modes and differential strategies to adapt the local conditions. This paper is an effective supplement for the "bottom up" method of land consolidation pattern division, which not only perfects the theory and method of land consolidation zoning, but also provides useful reference for task decomposition and project deployment in land consolidation planning.