中国食物消费随人口结构变化分析

中国目前正在经历快速的人口年龄结构调整,其必会对中国食物消费产生巨大的影响。该文利用中国健康与营养调查(China health and nutrition survey,CHNS)数据,对中国不同年龄居民的消费特征进行了分析,在此基础上,根据生命周期理论与Leslie人口模型,预测2030年前中国各年龄的人口规模,进而判断人口年龄结构变化对中国主要食物消费量的影响。研究结果显示:1)不同年龄段居民的不同类别的食物消费规律明显,大致可分为4种类型:倒"U"型曲线消费(口粮、水产品、白酒)、"U"型曲线消费(牛奶)、阶段性直线消费(肉类3阶段消费规律、禽类2阶段消费规律)、无差异消费(禽蛋)。2)人口年龄结构对中国食物消费总量产生了明显的影响,包括正向影响(口粮、水产品、白酒)、负向影响(肉类、禽类)、先负后正影响(牛奶)、无明显影响(禽蛋)。3)在影响程度上,中国人口年龄结构的演变对肉类、禽类消费量的负向影响最为明显,至2030年,分别达到4.9%与11.2%的程度,对白酒的正向影响也达到8.2%的程度。对口粮、水产品、牛奶的影响程度相对较小,而对禽蛋几乎没有影响。由此可见,人口年龄结构的变化会使中国居民肉类消费需求增长及由此带来的粮食需求压力趋缓。

Change of food consumption with population age structure in China

Abstract: China is a populous country that is facing serious aging problem due to the single-child birth policy. Same as urbanization, economic level, consumer preferences, and so on, the changes in population age structure would have a huge impact on food consumption. This paper used the household survey data conducted by the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) in 2012 to investigate the consumption status of Chinese residents of different ages. In CHNS, 23057 persons, 5928 households in 311 villages community, 11 provinces (province-level municipalities) were covered. This paper also predicted China''s population size before 2030 based on the Life Cycle Theory. Then this paper studied the influences of population age structure change on the consumption of major food in China. The main results are as follows: 1) Food consumption of residents of different ages has the obvious stage traits, all of which can be roughly divided into 4 groups: inverse U-shaped curve (grain ration, aquatic products and Chinese spirits), U-shaped curve (milk), staged consumption characteristics (3 phases for red meat consumption, 2 phases for poultry), no-difference consumption characteristics (egg). 2) China''s total population and the proportion of elderly citizens will continue to grow before 2030, and the growth rate of total population will slow down. In 2030, the total population of China will reach 1 466 millions, and the proportion of elderly citizens will reach 18.2%. The population age structure will exert significant impacts on the total food consumption in China. These impacts can be divided into 4 groups: positive impact (grain ration, aquatic products and Chinese spirits), negative impact (red meat and poultry), first negative impact and then positive impact (milk), no significant effect (egg). 3) In terms of the degree of influence, the effects of the population age structure change on total food consumption can be also divided into 4 types. The population age structure change will increase total consumption of grain ration, aquatic products and Chinese spirits. The growth rate of consumption of grain ration and aquatic products will slow down gradually, and the growth rate of consumption of Chinese spirits will first rise and then decrease. The population age structure change will exert the increasing negative impacts on total consumption of red meat and poultry, and the impacts are going to get higher. Till 2030, total consumption of red meat and poultry in China will reduce by 4.9% and 11.2% respectively. The impact of the population age structure change on total consumption of milk changes from ?1.4% in 2015 to 1.1% in 2030. And the population age structure change has little effect on egg consumption. So it is concluded that the population age structure change slows down meat consumption and total grain demand in China. Now, the focus of China''s food security should be changed from ensuring quantity security of grain to ensuring nutritional safety of residents. The future policies should pay attention to the differences of consumption characteristics of people of different ages. For example, citizens of China consume most poultry at the age of 20, most red meat at the age of 30, and consume most grain ration, aquatic products, Chinese spirits at the age of 47-53. As the most convenient and reliable source of protein, the consumption quantity of eggs at different ages is roughly the same.