华北平原农户主动退耕冬小麦的影响因素模型分析及政策启示

为揭示华北平原农户主动退耕冬小麦的现状及其影响因素,借助河北省沧县农户问卷调查数据,构建农户土地利用决策理论模型与多层二项logit模型。结果表明:1)案例区农户主动退耕冬小麦现象已较为普遍,2000年以来冬小麦退耕面积占耕地总面积的比例达28.18%;2)地块、农户和村庄3个层次在解释农户土地利用决策方面均发挥显著作用,其解释程度分别为52.1%、17.5%和30.4%;3)地块层次的土地质量、灌溉水源和地块面积在1%或5%水平下显著影响农户冬小麦退耕决策,且土地质量低下、灌溉水源稳定性较差、面积较小的地块更有可能退耕冬小麦;4)农户层次的平均务工收入、地均务农劳动力数量、受教育程度、农机设备和地块破碎度在5%或10%的水平发挥显著影响,且地均务农劳动力数量少、平均务工收入和地块破碎度高、农业决策者受教育程度高且不具备农机设备的农户退耕冬小麦的概率更高;5)村庄层次灌溉用电单价通过了5%的显著性检验,且灌溉用电单价越高时,农户越有可能发生冬小麦退耕行为。在此基础上,提出相关政策建议如下:农户主动退耕冬小麦背景下推行土地休耕制度须精准,应以严格的冬小麦种植摸底调查监测为前提,还应结合农村集体新型产业发展、农业水价综合改革等措施推进制度落实;同时,应加强地表水资源的合理配置与管理,稳定与适度发展地表水灌溉的小麦面积,为实现土地休耕与口粮安全"双赢"做出贡献。

Driving factors on winter wheat abandonment by farmers in North China Plain and its policy implication

Abstract: The North China Plain (NCP) is the major wheat production area in China, providing about two thirds of China''s wheat. However, it suffers severe water scarcity and groundwater over-exploitation problems, and irrigation for winter wheat is regarded as the major cause. Since the late 1990s, it has been found that in large and spatially continuous areas in the NCPwinter wheat has been abandoned by farmers, and the traditional winter wheat and summer maize double cropping system is being replaced by spring corns; this has been termed "the spring corn planting belt phenomenon". In this study, a theoretical household land-use decision model and an empirical multilevel binomial Logit model are constructed, using household survey data from a case study area, named Cangxian County in Hebei Province, so as to analyze the status of winter wheat abandonment and to reveal its driving forcesin the NCP. The results are as follows: 1) Farmers'' winter wheat abandonment is widespread in the case study area, and the ratio of area suffering winter wheat abandonment to total farmland area amounts for 28.18%. 2) Farmers'' land use decisions are influenced by multiple variables at 3 levels, including the land parcel level, the household level and the village level, and for the farmers'' land use decisions, 52.1% and 30.4% can be explained at the land parcel level and the village level, respectively, while the remaining17.5% can be explained at the household level. 3) At the land parcel level, soil quality, irrigation water source and plot area are all the factors affecting the winter wheat abandonmentdecision significantly at the level of 1% or 5%, and land parcels with poor soil quality, unstable supply of irrigation water and small plot area are more likely to suffer winter wheat abandonment. 4) At the household level, the average off-farm income, agricultural labor availability, educational level, farming equipment and land fragmentation all play significant influences at the level of 5% or 10%, and households with fewer agricultural labor forces, high off-farm income and land fragmentation, high educated agricultural decision makers and meanwhile without farming equipment usually show high probabilities of winter wheat abandonment. 5) At the county level, electricity price for irrigation significantly influences farmers'' land use decisions, which passes the 5% significance test, and winter wheat is more likely to be abandoned in households suffering higher electricity price for irrigation.According to the results of this study, policy implications are given as follows: 1) Under the background of farmers'' winter wheat abandonment, land fallow policy should be implemented efficiently, and detailed surveys of winter wheat area should be carried out in advance. Development of rural collective new industries, as well as reform of agricultural water prices should also be initiated, so as to advance the implementation of land fallow policy. 2) Surface water in the NCP should be rationally allocated and managed, so as to keep the steady and moderate development of area of winter wheat irrigated by surface water; this is meaningful for the win-win goal of land fallow and food security policies in China.