城乡一体化进程中耕地利用变化的驱动因素及区域比较

耕地利用变化与经济发展密切相关，阐明不同经济发展阶段耕地资源变化的驱动特征，有利于缓和耕地保护与经济发展的矛盾。基于苏皖各城市社会经济发展统计数据，运用因子分析和系统聚类方法，提取影响耕地利用变化的主要驱动因子，考察其对耕地资源变化的作用机理及苏皖耕地变化驱动特征的区域差异。研究结果表明，耕地利用变化驱动力可归结为经济发展、人口与农业和制度与政策因素，经济发展带来耕地面积“N 型”变化，人口与农业因子和耕地数量之间存在高度正线性关系。城市耕地资源变化驱动类型受经济发展阶段及自身条件双重影响，工业化高级阶段城市主要受经济发展与结构调整驱动；工业化初级阶段城市人口与农业因素缓解了耕地流失；较为复杂的是工业化中级阶段城市，因经济结构、资源禀赋条件及城市功能定位等因素差异，耕地利用变化驱动力出现分异。因此各市应根据本地实际做出理性的决策，转变经济增长方式，坚持最严格的耕地保护制度，节约集约使用土地，提高土地产出效率。

Driving factors of cultivated land use change in city and countryside integration process and region comparisons

Abstract: Cultivated land use change has close relations with the economic development. Clarifying driving factors of cultivated land resource change of different economic developing stages is beneficial to buffering the contradiction between cultivated land protection and economic developments. First, it analyzes driving factors of cultivated land use change in the city and countryside integration process, selects 14 indexes to form the driving force index system of cultivated land change from five aspects of population and urbanization level, economic developing level, economic structure situation, citizen life level, investment and external level, collects statistics data of social economic developments of 30 cities of Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces of 2008, applies factor analysis method to extract main driving factors influencing cultivated land resource change, calculates factor scores and inspects its functional mechanism of cultivated land resource change; Besides, it conducts clustering analysis on these cities, explores regional differences of cultivated land change of driving characteristics of Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces. Research results show that the driving force of cultivated land use change can be attributed to economic developing, population and agriculture and system and policy factors, as the "N style" change of cultivated area brought by economic developments; population and agriculture factor and cultivated land number have highly positive linear relations and their correlation coefficient reaches 0.979; political factors adjust protection force of cultivated lands at opportune moments. According to cultivated land use change driving factors, cities of Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces can be divided into five types, which are economic strong driving type, coordinated driving type, agricultural weak developing type, agricultural strong developing type and economic weak driving type. Classified types are not only influenced by the economic developing stages, but also by the conditions of cities. By conclusion, it finds that industrial high-level cities are mainly driven by economic developments and structural adjustments; in the industrial preliminary stage, civil population and agricultural factors buffer the loss of cultivated lands; industrial cities of medium level are more complicated. For factoring differences of economic structure, resource gifting condition and city functional positioning, the driving force of cultivated land use change appears differentiation. Research conclusions help establishing and executing government cultivated land protective measures and providing scientific reference evidences. Each city should make reasonable decisions, transfer economic increasing patterns, keep in the most strict cultivated land protective systems, treasure, use properly and intensify economically lands and improve land productive efficiencies.