生物柴油发展现状、影响与展望

随着第一代生物液体燃料发展规模的迅速扩大，其发展对农产品价格、粮食安全与环境等方面的影响开始显现，并引起了各国政府和学术界的广泛关注。该文在分析世界主要国家生物柴油发展现状、目标与激励政策的基础上，通过对生物柴油生产的原料需要和技术现状分析，探讨了生物柴油发展对农产品价格与环境等方面的可能影响。研究表明：未来生物柴油持续扩张的趋势不可逆转，将对农产品价格产生较大的上涨压力；生物柴油发展对环境和温室气体排放会产生影响，但影响程度与生产方式及其导致的土地利用变化情况密切有关；中国应重点发展林业生物柴油等“非粮”生物液体燃料产业，并建立有利于该产业健康发展的政策规范。

Biodiesel development: current status, potential impacts and perspectives

The global development of biofuel has been accelerating in the last few years. However, with the expansion of first generation biofuel (grain based), its impacts on food price, food security and environment start to loom, and have drawed many debates. This paper reviewed the current development of biodiesel, targets, and incentive policies in major biodiesel production countries. Based on the current feedstock demand and processing technologies of biodiesel, the paper analyzed its potential impacts on the prices of agricultural products and environment. The results indicate that the expansion of biodiesel production at a global level will still continue in the foreseeable future, and this will bring mounting pressure on the prices of agricultural products, especially on the prices of oil crops. The development of biodiesel will also have substantial impacts on environment and greenhouse gas emission, but the magnitude of its impacts will highly depend on production mode and the land use changes due to biodiesel development. To reduce the potential negative impacts of biodiesel development, China should focus on forest based biodiesel, particularly the Jatropha-seed based biodiesel, and formulate regulatory and incentive polices to promote the sustainable development of biodiesel industry in China.