典型农牧交错区土地利用变化驱动力分析

农牧交错带土地利用/覆被变化的驱动力研究是生态环境演化内在规律的重要组成部分,可以科学指导该地区的可持续发展。该文以农牧交错带的典型区域——内蒙古翁牛特旗为例,从土地利用变化过程的空间角度,基于GIS以及相关数理统计软件,使用Logistic模型分析了土地利用/覆被变化的内部和外部驱动力。结果表明模型中耕地变化的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离和农业气候区;草地变化的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离、土壤表层有机质含量和到乡镇中心的距离;林地变化的主要解释变量是到农村居民点的距离和海拔;空间异质性和土地利用变化过程的时间变量共同影响使用logistic回归模型来进行推断的能力;通过对草地logistic回归模型拟合度的检验,验证了不同土地利用类型变化的主要驱动力可以用空间统计模型来解释。

Driving force analysis of land use changes in the typical farming-pastoral ecotone

The study on the driving forces of land use and land cover change (LUCC) in the farming-pastoral ecotone can instruct the regional sustainable development, which is an important part of the study of inner law of regional eco-environment evolvement. This study attempts to identify how much understanding of the driving forces of land-use changes can be obtained through the logistic regression analysis. Taking the Ongniud Banner in Inner Mongolia as a representative of typical farming-pastoral ecotone, the driving forces of LUCC change was analyzed based GIS and SAS using the logistic regression model by view of spatial coherence. The results showed that the explanatory variables of the spatial model of cultivated land suggest a model, where conversion to cultivated land is controlled by the rural settlement and agro-climatic potential. Expansion of grass is controlled by the distance to the nearest rural settlement, organic matter in the soil and distance to the nearest river. Expansion of forest is also controlled by the rural settlement and altitude. Spatial heterogeneity as well as the variability in time of land-use change processes affects our ability to use regression models for wide ranging extrapolations. These spatial models can identify the main driver forces of different land-use change through the validation of the logistic regression model of the grass expansion.