基于STIRPAT模型的耕地面积变化及其影响因素

经济快速发展对耕地面积减少的影响,是当前土地利用变化研究领域的热点之一。该文利用STIRPAT模型,以苏州市1978-2005年耕地面积数据及其相关社会经济影响因素的时间序列数据为例,分析了人口、产业结构和城市化水平对耕地面积变化的影响及富裕度与耕地占用之间的相关性。结果表明:在诸多影响因素中,人口数量的变化是引起改革开放以来苏州市耕地面积减少的主要因素;而第三产业增加值占地区生产总值比重和城市化率的变化对耕地面积的减少也发挥着重要作用;在观测数据范围内,富裕度和耕地面积之间存在类似环境Kuznets曲线,并且苏州市正处于该曲线的前期阶段,属于矛盾的凸显期。据此,研究认为缓解苏州市耕地面积减少的压力可从控制人口、调整产业结构、提高城市化水平、转变经济增长方式等方面入手。

Cultivated land area change and its impact factors based on STIRPAT model

The impact of rapid economic development on the reduction of cultivated land area is one of the hotspots in land-use change researches currently.Introducing STIRPAT model,influence of population,industrial structure and the level of urbanization on the cultivated land changes were analyzed,and the relationship between prosperous level and cultivated land area were analyzed in Suzhou City,using the cultivated land data and related socio-economic development data from 1978 to 2005.The results show that population change is the main cause for cultivated land reduction in Suzhou City since the reform and opening.In addition,changes of the urbanization rate and proportion of the tertiary-industry added value to regional GDP of the area also play an important role in the cultivated land reduction.In the scope of observational data,the relationship between the prosperous level and the cultivated land area is similar to the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC),and Suzhou City is at the early stage of the curve,that is,the period of prominent contradictions.Accordingly,several suggestions are proposed in the study to mitigate the pressure of cultivated land reduction,including population control,industrial structure adjustment,urbanization level improvement and economic growth mode transition,etc.