中国耕地利用强度分化特征及影响因素研究

中国耕地利用正在发生转型，呈现耕地集约化与边际化同时存在的现象，而这种双向变化会引起耕地利用强度发生分化。因此，在对耕地利用强度分化过程进行理论解释的基础上，通过修正变异系数构建区域耕地利用强度分化测度模型，测度中国2000-2014年耕地利用强度分化演变特征及区域差异影响因素。研究结果表明：全国及区域尺度耕地利用强度分化时间上基本呈扩张趋势，仅中部地区呈收缩特征，空间上呈"中部低，四周高"的分布特征；省域尺度耕地利用强度分化特征在时间上表现为大部分省份分化扩张，少部分省份收缩，而在空间上省域耕地利用分化程度弱于全国与区域尺度分化程度，省际之间耕地利用强度分化差异显著；农药化肥要素投入分化扩张特征更明显，其均衡性发展有助于区域耕地利用强度的提高；省域尺度耕地利用强度分化区域差异主要受耕地流转、劳均耕地规模等经营管理因素的影响，受耕地质量、地形起伏等自然条件影响相对较弱，同时，社会经济状况因子的作用效应较耕地经营状况和自然基础状况空间分异特征更明显。基于研究结果该文认为一方面需加强农业基础设施建设和农药化肥等生物化学投入管控，另一方面应不断完善土地市场、培育多种经营主体，整合农业生产要素，提高农民收入水平。

Differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of cultivated land use intensity in China

Abstract: The transition of cultivated land use has led to the simultaneous existence of cultivated land intensification and marginalization in China. Two-way change can also cause the intensity differentiation of cultivated land use in recent years. The purpose of this study is to clarify the differentiation characteristics of cultivated land-use intensity under both arable land marginalization and intensification. Firstly, an explanation was made on the intensity differentiation of cultivated land use. Secondly, a model was built to measure the regional differentiation of cultivated land use by the modified coefficient of variation. Thirdly, measurement was carried out for the differentiated changing of cultivated land-use intensity and the influencing factors in China from 2000 to 2014. Results showed that the spatial distribution of cultivated land-use intensity was characterized as ''low in the middle and high around''. There was also a trend of temporal expansion of cultivated land-use intensity at the national and regional scales, while central China showed a trend of spatial contraction. Furthermore, the intensity of cultivated land use presented expansions in most provinces, and contractions in a few provinces in terms of time changing. The differentiation degree of cultivated land use at provincial scale was smaller than that at national and regional scales in terms of spatial variation. There were also significant differences in the cultivated land-use intensity among different provinces. There were more obvious differentiation and expansion characteristics of farm chemicals and chemical fertilizer inputs, indicating that the balance contributed to improving the cultivated land-use intensity. The geographic detector model and Geographically-Weighted Regression (GWR) model were used to estimate the global and local parameters for the influencing factors of regional difference in the intensity index of provincial cultivated land use. It was found that the regional differences of cultivated land-use intensity at provincial scale were dominated mainly by the operation and management factors, such as transfer and area per capita of cultivated land, whereas, a relatively weak influence by the natural conditions, such as cultivated land quality and topographic relief. At the same time, a Moran''I test was performed on the intensity index of cultivated land use in provincial units. It was found that there was a significant spatial correlation in the intensity indexes of cultivated land use among provinces. Then, the GWR revealed that there was more obvious spatial differentiation from the effects of socio-economic conditions than that from the cultivated land management and natural foundation. Correspondingly, there was also a much weaker effect of natural basic conditions on the differentiation of cultivated land-use intensity, than that of cultivated land management and socio-economic conditions on the global and local scales in the geographical detector and GWR. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the control of agricultural infrastructure construction and biochemical inputs, such as pesticides and fertilizers. More importantly, some specific agricultural production factors can also be integrated to constantly improve the land market for the diversified business entities in modern agriculture.