密云水库集水区基于LUCC的生态服务价值动态演变

为实现土地利用/覆被变化的生态可持续发展，以生态服务价值当量为基础，利用4期土地利用数据和马尔科夫模型对密云水库集水区生态服务价值动态变化进行了评估。结果表明：该区4期（1972－2008年）各土地利用类型间整体演变方式由复杂到简单，强度由强到弱，均逐渐向林地转化。1987、2000、2008年及验证并预测的2020年生态服务总价值较1972年分别增加1.9%、14.4%、18.9%和18.6%。林地占总价值比例最高，达65%以上；水文调节、维持生物多样性和保持土壤3项生态服务价值占总价值的50%左右。前3个时段内影响生态服务价值变化的主导因子为林地，预测2008－2020年间将为草地。

Dynamic evolution of the ecological service value based on LUCC in Miyun Reservoir Catchment

Based on value equivalent, the ecological services value of Miyun Reservoir Catchment was evaluated and predicted dynamically with land use data of four periods and the Markov model to realize ecological sustainable development of land use and land cover change. The results indicated that all types of land use turned to forest land gradually in a whole trend, with the conversion method from complex to simple, the strength from strong to weak during the four periods from 1972 to 2008. The total value of ecosystem services in 1987, 2000, 2008 and 2020 which were verified and predicted increased by 1.9%, 14.4%, 18.9% and 18.6%, respectively, than that in 1972. The ecological services value of forest accounted for more than 65% of the total value. Value summation of hydrological regulation, maintenance of biological diversity and soil conversation occupied about 50%. During the former three periods, forest was the dominant factor impacting the change of the ecosystem services value, grass was forecasted to turn to the dominant factor during 2008 to 2020.