| 中国粮食问题现状与解决对策 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱永达,张永贞,侯云先.中国粮食问题现状与解决对策[J].农业工程学报,1995,11(3):1-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱永达 张永贞 侯云先 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南农业大学机电工程学院;河南农业大学机电工程学院;河南农业大学机电工程学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据中国粮食总产量的时间序列,采用分解法,按粮食总产量随时间t的不同变化规律分解为稳定增长的趋势产量、周期波动的气象波动产量和无规律的随机扰动产量。对2000年时中国粮食总产量作了预测,分析了波动的原因和波幅的大小。进而用Delphi法与解释结构模型(ISM)建立起中国粮食问题影响因素的结构关系模型,在此基础上提出了三项具体对策。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国粮食问题 分解法 解释结构模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 1995/5/10 0:00:00 |
Present Situation of the Grain Problem and Countermeasures in China |
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| Zhu Yongd,Zhang Yongzhen and Hou Yunxian.Present Situation of the Grain Problem and Countermeasures in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,1995,11(3):1-7. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Yongd Zhang Yongzhen and Hou Yunxian |
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| Institution: | Mechanical Electrical Engineering College of Henan Agricultural University |
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| Abstract: | According to the time series of the total grain output in China, the paper resolves the totalgrain output into steady increasing trend output, meteorological fluctuation output and random output , and forecasts the total grain output in China up to 2000. Through analyzing the reason of fluctuation and its amplitude width with Delphi method and the interpretation of the structure model (ISM) , the structure model of the effecting factor of the grain problem has set up. The last part of the paper, three concrete countermeasures are presented. |
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| Keywords: | Grain problem Resolving method Interpretative structure modeling |
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