Landscape setting and risk of Ranavirus mortality events

Amphibian mortality events in relatively pristine and protected settings cause particular concern because they may be linked to larger scale, off-site factors that interact with local landscape features. We used logistic regression and model selection criterion (QAIC_c) to identify landscape features key to predicting disease incidence in Acadia National Park (ANP), Maine, USA. High catchment position was the most important landscape feature associated with larval mortality events in ANP wetlands, and was present in all competing models. No spatial autocorrelation of disease events was observed, suggesting that within our study area, epizootics are not clustered and landscape and within-pond stressors may be more influential in mortality occurrence than vector movement. However, our model may be a considerable underestimate of in-field infection rates because it was based on die-off event incidences and did not include infected reservoirs or vectors. This study provides the first clear connection between landscape position and Ranavirus mortality events. Conservation and disease containment efforts in ANP should be directed toward higher catchment position and headwater wetlands such as vernal pools.