Land managers’ willingness-to-sell defines conservation opportunity for protected area expansion

Spatial prioritization techniques are increasingly applied in the design of protected area networks, which are regarded as the cornerstone of nature conservation efforts. These techniques are becoming ever more sophisticated, but are still founded primarily upon biological data. A common assumption made in most spatial prioritizations is that land throughout a planning region is available for acquisition. We interviewed land managers in the Eastern Cape province, South Africa, and mapped their willingness-to-sell their land using a psychometric analytical technique. We examined the, (i) degree to which vegetation type targets are achieved across a planning region, (ii) areal and cost efficiency, and (iii) spatial configuration, of candidate protected areas identified as important for achieving conservation targets. We found that only 10 out of 48 land managers were willing-to-sell their land. Only seven, five and one of the 19 vegetation types, respectively, could achieve their conservation targets of 10%, 30% and 50% when unwilling land managers were removed from the analysis. Assuming unwilling land managers could be convinced to sell if offered a premium price, the cost of acquiring all lands was between 6.20% and 30.67% more expensive than 2006 land prices. Accounting for implementation opportunities and constraints, such as land manager willingness-to-sell, not simply identifying biological priorities, is of fundamental importance for ensuring spatial prioritizations deliver maps with the potential to usefully guide expansion of protected area networks which can be feasibly implemented.