Recent declines in northern tall-grass prairies and effects of patch structure on community persistence

Tall-grass prairies are a critically endangered ecosystem in North America. Our objectives were to evaluate potential roles of prairie patch structure (defined in terms of prairie patch area, matrix type, and edge effects) in explaining changes in number, size, and quality of northern tall-grass prairies over time. In 2006, we evaluated changes in remnant tall-grass prairies at the most northern extent of the tall-grass prairie range, by resurveying plant communities in 65 remnant patches in Manitoba, Canada, that were previously surveyed in 1987 or 1988. In 2007 and 2008 we conducted more detailed surveys of vegetation structure and composition at 580, 0.2 × 0.5 m quadrats distributed within 24 remnant patches of northern tall-grass prairie. Our findings suggest remnant northern tall-grass prairies continue to suffer from serious threats: 37% of the patches surveyed in 1987 or 1988 had changed to other habitat types by 2006; patches smaller than 21 ha tended to decrease in size, while larger patches increased in size; and most patches, particularly smaller ones, declined in quality. Both native and alien species responded more strongly to distance to edge than to patch size or matrix type. Edge effects may explain why prairie quality is lower and more likely to decline in smaller remnants. Richness of native plants was negatively correlated with cover and richness of alien species, suggesting that alien species may displace native species. Few existing northern tall-grass prairies are likely to be self-sustaining, and immediate active management is required to prevent further loss of remnant northern tall-grass prairies.