我国转基因水稻的环境生物安全评价及其关键问题分析

转基因水稻的商品化种植可能带来潜在的环境生物安全问题，例如：转基因对非靶标生物的影响，外源转基因逃逸及其可能带来的生态后果，转基因植物对生物多样性的影响，以及转基因对土壤微生物群落的影响等。对于转基因水稻的大规模种植进行科学的环境安全评价，有利于其可持续生产和安全利用。从我国的水稻生态系统和水稻种植方式的实际情况出发，结合我国可能进行商品化种植的转基因水稻种类，作者对转基因水稻品种的环境释放和商品化种植可能导致的潜在环境生物安全问题进行了科学和理性的分析。根据风险评价的原则（风险% = 危害性 × 发生概率），本文特别对抗病、虫和抗除草剂转基因水稻的商品化种植可能带来的直接和间接影响进行了分析和讨论，希望能为转基因水稻商品化种植的决策提供参考，并为转基因水稻的环境安全性评价提供科学依据。

Potential Commercialization of Genetically Modified Rice in China: Key Questions for Environmental Biosafety Assessments

The commercialization of genetically modified (GM) rice may arouse environmental biosafety concerns, including the impacts of transgenes on non-target organisms and biodiversity, transgene escape and its related ecological consequences, and transgenic influences on soil micro-fauna form extensive cultivation of GM rice. Science-based environmental biosafety assessments of GM rice will facilitate its safe and sustainable application in agriculture eco-systems. Based on the actual eco-systems and cultivation styles of rice, as well as the types of GM rice varieties that would be possibly commercially released in China, this paper presents a rational analysis of potential environmental biosafety consequences caused by the extensive commercial cultivation of the GM rice. Based on the principal of any risk assessment (risk% = hazards × exposure), the author particularly analyzed the direct and indirect influences of GM rice resistant to insects, diseases, and herbicides. Hopefully, the analysis based on the rational thinking will provide useful information for decision-making on GM rice commercialization and the relevant environmental biosafety assessments.