Thresholds of population persistence for the Yangtze finless porpoise: implications for conservation managements

The Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis), a critically endangered species, is the only cetacean species in the Yangtze River following the functional extinction of baiji (Lipotes vexillifer). To inform conservation actions, two important questions need to be addressed: what is the threshold value of survival rate, and what is the threshold value of population size? We calculate the instantaneous rate of population increase () for the Yangtze finless porpoise for various combinations of the calf and the non-calf survival rates. We also test the probability of extinction for different minimum carrying capacities for 100 and 500 years using a stable population model. The threshold value of the non-calf survival rate is never lower than 0.869, but current estimates from field data have been far below this threshold. Our model based on extinction probability and carrying capacity suggests that the threshold for the population size to persist 100 years required 113 animals, and 472 animals are required to persist 500 years. Therefore, we recommend establishing an ex situ reserve network to guarantee the minimum 100-year carrying capacity. To ensure the long-term population viability, we suggest establishing two in situ reserve zones in two lakes and their surrounding reserves to meet a minimum 500-year carrying capacity. In addition, measures to avoid further habitat fragmentation should be priority.