1961～2006年石河子垦区降水序列变化规律及干旱预测

以1961～2006年石河子垦区的年降水量为基础数据,分析得出该地区降水的时间序列变化特征及规律：研究区年降水总体呈上升趋势,其中,20世纪90年代以前增加缓慢,90年代以后增加显著。以1961～1996年的年降水量数据为建模数据,1997～2006年的数据为检验数据,运用灰色系统的灾变预测方法,建立各分区的灾变预测模型GM（1,1）,重点对石河子市和下野地未来发生干旱的年份进行了预测,得出石河子、下野地未来可能发生干旱的年份分别为2012、2010年。

Variation Law of Precipitation Sequence during 1961-2006 and Drought Prediction in Shihezi Reclamation Area

Based on annual precipitation in Shehezi reclamation area during 1961-2006,the variation characteristics and law of precipitation time sequence in the area were analyzed:annual precipitation generally showed upward trend,increasing slowly before 20th century 90's,increasing significantly after 90's.With annual precipitation during 1961-1996 as modeling data,1997-2006 as testing data,and by using gray system's cataclysm forecasting technique,disaster prediction model GM(1,1)of every district was established,...