张掖市种植结构优化调整

在中国西北干旱区,气候变化对地区气温、降水以及水资源供应等方面的影响直接影响到地区绿洲农业发展。在全球变暖的背景下,为实现社会-经济-生态效益最大化,研究黑河中游张掖市农作物的调整模式,以最终实现区域农业可持续发展。将土地资源、农作物种植面积、粮食安全、农民收入保障和生态压力作为约束条件,以利润最大化为目标,建立线性规划模型。结果表明,在农作物总体种植面积减少0.41%的情况下,将主要的粮食、经济和其他作物种植面积由原来的39.96%、37.71%和22.33%,调整到40.13%、39.96%和19.91%,可使农业净产值增加11.52×10~8元,并实现农业节水27.9%。

The optimization and adjustment of planting structure in Zhangye city

In the arid region of Northwestern China, development of oasis agriculture is directly influenced by the climate change impacting on area temperature, precipitation, water supplies and so on. The present research focuses on how to maximize the efficiency of economic-society-ecology through adjusting the crops in the middle-reaches of the Heihe river basin for the development of the regional sustainable agriculture. With the boundary condition of land resources, crop planting area, food security, farmer-income protection, and ecological pressure, the study developed a linear programing model based on the purpose of profit-maximization. The result indicated that the net value of agricultural output may increase 1 152 million Yuan as well as agricultural water-saving of 27.9%, if the plantations of main food and economical crops and other crops are adjusted from 39.96%, 37.71%, and 22.33% to 40.13%, 39.96%, and 19.91%, respectively under the situation of 0.41% reduction in crop planting area.