西部欠发达地区耕地动态变化及需求预测研究——以四川省井研县为例

以四川省井研县为例,结合新一轮土地利用总体规划修编,分析了该县域耕地利用中存在的问题,分别采用主成分分析和灰色关联度法分析了井研县耕地利用变化的驱动力;然后,运用灰色系统预测模型,研究其耕地的未来发展趋势,以期掌握其发展动向;最后,以实现耕地总量动态平衡为目标,提出实现土地可持续利用的对策,从而有效地指导当前土地资源管理工作和控制未来的土地利用。这对于促进西部欠发达地区资源、环境和人口的协调与经济可持续发展有着重要意义。

Dynamic Study and Prediction of Cultivated Land Use Change in Developing West China

The cultivated land is the base of farming manufacture and the foundation of mankind existence.Based on the new general land use planning of Jing-yan county in Si-chuan province,the cultivated land use items and these problems were firstly discussed and then the driving forces of change of the cultivated land use was analyzed with the principal component analysis and the theory of gray system respectively;and,by employing the gray system predicting model,the future development tendency of the cultivated land in this county was forecasted in order to control its developing trend;and finally,the target of dynamic balance of the cultivated land in total could be achieved and the countermeasures to realize the sustainable use of the land,consequently to guide the current land resource management and control the future land use effectively were presented.It was significant to promote the coordination of resources,environments and population and the sustainable development of the economy in this county.