基于CGE模型的政策模拟系统的研究

针对目前政策模拟分析系统缺乏的问题,提出利用计算机技术将CGE模型、DSS、数据仓库、数据转换等集成在一个模拟系统中:采用Visual C .net开发模拟分析系统的人机交互界面和问题处理系统;GAMS IDE完成CGE模型生成和求解系统;数据仓库采用SQL Server 2000设计并实现,构造了政策模拟原型系统。在所设计的模拟系统上,以农业补贴政策模拟为例,通过情景分析法进行实证模拟分析。结果表明:模拟集成系统初步实现了CGE建模、模拟计算、系统维护及人机交互的功能。该模拟系统能够解决实际政策模拟问题,辅助决策者进行政策制定。

Research of policy simulation system based on CGE model

Aiming at the situation that the simulating systems are very limited for policy simulation at present,a simulation system which makes use of computer technique is presented in this paper.The Visual C .net software was adopted to accomplish this integrate platform.The building and solving systems of CGE model were embedded into the GAMS software.The data warehouse was set up by SQL Server 2000 software.In this system,we integrated CGE model,DSS,data warehouse and data convert into one and established a prototype of the PSSBCGE policy simulation system.Through the scene analytical method,we simulated the agriculture subsidizes policy.The analytical results demonstrated that the prototype system had carried out some functions of the simulation system.In a word,this system can be used for the actual policy simulation problem and provide a decision support for decision maker.