基于SWAT模型的皇甫川流域径流模拟研究

随着气候变化和人类活动影响，分布于干旱半干旱地区的河川径流量显著减少，这已引起严峻的生活生产及生态等方面问题。本文基于SWAT模型,成功构建典型干旱半干旱地区皇甫川流域分布式水文模型，采用1990-1999年月径流资料进行参数率定，2000-2004年月径流资料作为模型验证，对模型的适用性做了评估。研究结果表明：率定期的Nash-Sutcliffe系数Ens值和相关系数R2均为0.80，相对误差Re为-4.6%，验证期的Ens值为0.66，相关系数R2为0.67，相对误差Re为10.1%，总体模拟结果较为满意。这为干旱半干旱地区分布式水文模型的应用奠定了基础，为皇甫川流域未来的水资源规划管理提供了科学参考依据。

Runoff Simulation of Huangfuchuan Watershed Based on SWAT Model

Impacted by the climate change and human activities, the flow of rivers and streams in arid and semi-arid regions are decreasing dramatically, which has caused severe problems both in people’s life and ecology. This study has established a watershed distributed hydrological model SWAT in an arid and semi-arid region Huangfuchuan watershed. In purpose of checking the behavior of SWAT in this watershed, the model has been run for the 1990-2004 period, and while the 1990-1999 periods have been used for calibration, the remaining parts for validation. A satisfaction result has been achieved with Ens, R2, Re are 0.80, 0.80 and -4.6% respectively in calibration period and 0.66, 0.67 and 10.1% respectively in validation period. With this study, an application of distributed hydrological model in arid and semi-arid regions has been achieved and a modeling framework has been founded to aid water management applications in Huangfuchuan watershed.