河南省冬小麦干旱指数特征分析及风险评估

为了研究干旱对河南省冬小麦产量形成的影响,准确评估干旱造成的危害程度。笔者利用河南省气候资料、冬小麦产量资料,商丘灌溉资料分析冬小麦完成各发育期的气象条件,利用Z指数等方法,讨论冬小麦干旱的时空分布特征,并对河南省冬小麦干旱风险区划。结果表明：（1）河南省冬小麦丰年和歉年降水条件东西部差异较大,当东部（西部）全生育期降水>263 mm (284 mm)时,降水条件有利于冬小麦生长和产量形成;（2）在时间分布上,1965—2014年河南省Z指数呈下降趋势,趋于干旱;空间上呈自西北向东南减少趋势;（3）河南省干旱风险呈自西向东逐渐减小的分布特征。

Winter Wheat in Henan: Drought Index Characteristics and Risk Assessment

To study the effect of drought on winter wheat yield, evaluate the damage caused by drought, based on data of climate and winter wheat yield of Henan Province, as well as the irrigation data of Shangqiu, we analyzed the meteorological conditions of winter wheat during each development period, and discussed the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of winter wheat drought by Z index, and carried out the drought risk zoning of winter wheat in Henan. The results showed that: (1) the precipitation conditions of winter wheat in abundant and poor years in Henan varied greatly from east to west, the precipitation >263 mm (284 mm) during the whole growth period in the east (west) was conducive to the growth and yield of winter wheat; (2) in terms of time distribution, Z index showed a downward trend in Henan during 1965-2014, tending to drought; in terms of space, it showed a decreasing trend from northwest to southeast; (3) the drought risk in Henan was decreasing gradually from west to east.