一次局地短时强降水及暴雨天气过程分析

利用常规气象观测资料、卫星云图、雷达资料以及数值模式预报资料对2012年5月28日陇南局地短时强降水及暴雨天气过程进行了分析。结果表明,此次暴雨过程是在蒙古低涡冷槽发展南压的大环流背景下,配合西南涡外围的暖湿气流共同作用形成的,其中良好的水汽条件以及深厚的垂直上升运动所产生的抽吸作用和局地的不稳定条件为局地暴雨的发生提供的充分的条件;同时,卫星云图上云团的合并分裂对短时强降水的预报有很好的指导性,而各家数值模式预报对此次降水过程预报量级上偏小,但对降水落区及起止时间的总体把握上有很好的指导意义。

A Local Short-Term Strong Precipitation and Heavy Rain Weather Process Analysis

Using conventional meteorological observation data,satellite cloud images and radar data and numerical model forecast data,a local short-term strong precipitation and heavy rain weather process occurred during May 28,2012 in Longnan of Gansu Province was analyzed.The results showed that： the rainstorm process is cold tank development with south pressure background in Menggu vortex,and the southwest vortex peripheral joint action of warm moist air flows,including the formation of good moisture condition and deep vertical upward movement produced by the suction function and local instability conditions for local rainstorm happened provide sufficient condition.At the same time,the merge and split of satellite cloud image has a good guidance to forecast short-term strong precipitation,and their numerical forecast the precipitation process forecast on smaller,but has a good guidance significance on general grasping precipitation drop zone and start-stop time on.