北部湾经济区土地利用格局模拟及其生态环境效益评价——以广西壮族自治区钦州市为例

目的]通过对北部湾经济区土地利用格局动态模拟,并对模拟结果进行生态环境效益评估,以期为相关规划及决策部门提供参考资料。方法]基于2000和2010年两期TM遥感影像数据,运用Logistic逐步回归分析,CLUE-S模型模拟分析和生态环境效益综合评价分析方法。结果](1)广西壮族自治区钦州市未来城市扩展范围主要集中在钦州市中心城区往南至海滨新城,沿海港口及钦江流域方向;(2)自然增长、规划指标、生态安全3种政策情景的生态服务价值分别为213.01,200.59和226.52亿元,仅与2012年研究区GDP总额相近,未能充分发挥生态环境所应有的作用,且尤其以规划指标情景最为突出。结论]CLUE-S模型对钦州市土地利用格局模拟准确,在北部湾经济区具有良好的推广应用价值。

Dynamic Simulation and Eco-environmental Benefits Evaluation of Land Use Pattern in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone -A Case Study of Qinzhou City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

Objective] Through simulating the dynamic changes of land use pattern in the Beibu Gulf economic zone of Qinzhou City and evaluating the ecological environmental benefits of the simulation results to provide a support for local governments and departments.Methods] Used the TM remote sensing(image) data and experiment/research conducted in 2000 and 2010. Adopted the logistic regression analysis, the CLUE-S(the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent) model simulation analysis, and the ecological environment benefits comprehensive evaluation method.Results] The urban expansion area mainly concentrated in area from the center of Qinzhou City to the coastal town along Qinjiang river basin. The value of ecological service was 213.01 billion yuan under natural growth scenario, and 200.59 billion yuan under planning scenario, and 226.52 billion yuan under ecological security policy scenario. The value closed to the GDP in 2012, but failed to give full play role of the ecological environment, and especially in the planning target scene.Conclusion] The simulation results of land use pattern are accurate by CLUE-S model in Qinzhou City, which has a good popularization and application value in the Beibu Gulf economic zone.