河北日光温室气象灾害影响和气象服务评估

通过问卷形式,对河北省日光温室蔬菜生产经销者和技术人员对气象服务的满意度,低温冻害、寡照、大风、雪灾4种主要气象灾害对日光温室蔬菜产量、品质、贮藏、运输、销售的影响率,用于日光温室气象灾害防御及补救的费用占所有气象灾害防御和补救费用百分率,以及菜农接受气象服务的投入占收成的百分率等进行调查,并利用德尔菲法对气象灾害防御和补救费用及气象服务的效益进行定量化评估.结果表明,多数被调查者认为低温冻害和寡照对日光温室蔬菜产量和品质有较大影响,其中认为低温冻害影响率大于15％的人数分别占45.6％、53.7％,认为寡照灾害影响率大于15％的人数分别占37.8％、35.4％,认为大风和雪灾的影响相对较小；70％以上的人认为大风和寡照对日光温室蔬菜贮藏、运输和销售的影响率在20％以下,超过50％的人认为低温冻害对蔬菜贮藏影响率大于30％,认为雪灾对蔬菜贮藏、运输和销售的影响率大于30％的人数分别占31.0％、63.9％和53.0％.被调查者对日光温室4种主要气象灾害的气象服务满意度均达96％以上.对大风、低温冻害、寡照和雪灾的防御和补救的费用占所有气象灾害防御及补救费用的平均百分率分别为20.3％、15.8％、13.0％和19.4％,4种灾害的气象服务平均贡献率分别为3.08％、2.25％、1.90％和2.55％.按近l0a（2004-2013）河北省日光温室蔬菜产业年平均生产总值计算,大风灾害气象服务效益最高,平均每年达2.941亿元,其它依次为雪灾、低温冻害和寡照,总效益平均每年达9.340亿元.

Effects of Meteorological Disasters and Service Benefit Evaluation on Greenhouse Production in Hebei Province

Eight indices of three kinds were designed in questionnaire to producer, dealers and technicians in 2013 in Hebei province. These indices included the meteorological service satisfaction for greenhouse production, the effects of main meteorological disasters on greenhouse vegetable yield, quality, storage, transportation and sales, and the different meteorological disaster defensive and remedial costs as a percentage of all meteorological disaster defensive and remedial costs. The benefit of meteorological service and the meteorological disaster recovery cost were evaluated quantitatively by using Delphi method. The results showed that most of reviewers thought that the effects of low temperature freeze injury and little sunlight on yield and quality of greenhouse vegetables were serious, 45.6% and 53.7% of reviewers thought the low temperature freeze effect on the yield and quality rate were more than 15%, 37.8% and 35.4% of reviewers thought the little sunlight effect on the yield and quality rate were more than 15%. While the effects of strong wind and snow storms on greenhouse vegetables were relatively slight. More than 70% ofreviewers thought the effects rate of strong wind and little sunlight on greenhouse vegetable storage, transportation and sales were below 20%, more than half of reviewers thought that the effects of low temperature freeze on vegetable storage were more than 30%, 31.0%, 63.9% and 53.0% of reviewers thought the effects rate of snow storms on vegetable storage, transportation and sales were more than 30%. The satisfaction of reviewers to meteorological service was more than 96%. All kinds of meteorological service satisfaction from high to low in turns were the strong wind, snow storms, low temperature freeze and little sunlight. The percentage of defensive and remedial cost on strong wind, low temperature freeze, little sunlight and snow storms were in turns 20. 3%, 15.8%, 13.0% and 19.4%, and meteorological service average contribution rate were 3.08%, 2. 25%, 1.90% and 2. 55% respectiv