长三角城市群碳排放绩效与土地利用强度时空格局及协调发展特征

科学探索城市碳排放绩效与土地利用的协调发展特征，是在基础层面推动碳中和目标实现的必经之路。该研究在分析碳排放绩效与土地利用强度协调发展机理的基础上，以长三角城市群为例，利用超效率slacks-based measure(SBM)模型测度2003—2018年各市碳排放绩效，基于连续土地利用数据评估各市土地利用强度，并分析其时空演变格局；借助协调度模型揭示碳排放绩效与土地利用强度的协调发展特征与动态演化趋势。研究结果表明：1）长三角城市群碳排放绩效在时空上均呈现两阶段变化，2003-2013年区域碳排放绩效均值由0.63逐渐上升至0.77，高值区集中在浙江、江苏沿海地区，低值区零散分布在淮安、连云港，淮南等地。2013-2018年区域碳排放绩效均值小幅下降至0.68，高值区城市数量有所减少。2）区域土地利用强度均值由349.74逐渐上升至356.63，低值区主要集中在研究区南部的浙江部分城市，高值区主要分布在研究区北部，以江苏徐州、安徽淮北、毫州为代表。3）碳排放绩效与土地利用强度的协调度在16 a间波动上升，低值区主要分布在研究区西南部的浙江、安徽部分城市，高值区集中在江苏沿海城市如盐城...

Spatiotemporal pattern and coordinating development characteristics of carbon emission performance and land use intensity in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Urban areas contribute about 75% of global carbon emissions in only about 2% of the world''s total land area. A significant contributor of urban areas accounts for global climate change. It is necessary to scientifically explore the coordinating development characteristics between urban carbon emission and land use in recent years. An important way is seeking to determine the parallel path between rational land resource use and low carbon & emission reduction in cities, in order to promote the carbon neutrality goals at the basic level. Taking the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration as the study area, this study aims to analyze the coordinating development mechanism between carbon emission performance and land use intensity. The super-efficient slacks-based measure (SBM) model was also used to measure the carbon emission performance of each city from 2003 to 2018. The land use intensity of each city was then assessed to determine the spatial-temporal evolution pattern using continuous data on land use. The coordination model was utilized to reveal the coordinating development characteristics and dynamic evolution trend of carbon emission performance and land use intensity. The results showed that: 1) There was a two-stage change in the carbon emission performance in both space and time. The average value of carbon emission performance gradually increased from 0.63 to 0.77 from 2003 to 2013. Specifically, the high-value regions were concentrated in the coastal areas of Zhejiang and Jiangsu Province, whereas, the low-value regions were scattered in Huai''an, Lianyungang, and Huainan Province. By contrast, the average value of the carbon emission performance decreased slightly to 0.68 from 2013 to 2018, where there was a decreasing number of cities in the high-value regions. It infers that the regional energy saving and emission reduction fell into a short-lived bottleneck. 2) The average value of the regional land use intensity gradually increased from 349.74 to 356.63, with a clustered distribution pattern of the higher value in the north than in the south part of space. The low-value areas were mainly concentrated in some cities of Zhejiang Province in the south of the study area, while the high ones were located in the north, represented by Xuzhou in Jiangsu, Huaibei and Haozhou in Anhui Province. 3) A fluctuating upward trend was found in the coordination degree between carbon emission performance and land use intensity from 2003 to 2018. Among them, the low-value regions were mainly distributed in some cities of Zhejiang and Anhui Province in the southwestern part of the study area, whereas, the high ones were concentrated in Shanghai and coastal cities in Jiangsu Province, such as Yancheng and Nantong. There were also a higher average annual growth rate and an ever-increasing proportion of cities in the coordinating development, even in the transitional stage from 2003 to 2007. A plateau period was observed during low-carbon adjustment in the regional land use, particularly in the coordinating development stage from 2008 to 2018, but the growth rate gradually slowed down. In conclusion, the coordinating development between land use intensity and carbon emission performance can be expected as the land use planning for the low-carbon urban development in each city.