国家粮食安全后备基地生产能力优化布局研究

【目的】针对新疆农业生产条件和发展特点,以及水土资源开发潜力,对新疆未来粮食生产能力和优化布局进行模拟预测,为新疆建设国家粮食安全后备基地、保障国家粮食安全提供依据。【方法】线性优化模型。【结果】(1)通过水土资源开发和单产水平的不断提高及布局优化,在满足棉花、畜牧业和特色林果业发展需求,以及考虑各地州(市)粮食生产现状和未来发展需要的基础上,2020年新疆具备发展种植规模313.33×104hm2(4 700万亩),产量达到2 700×104t以上的粮食生产能力;(2)假定在我国出现大的自然灾害等极限状况下,为满足国家战略需求,在不兼顾其他种植业的基础上,2020年新疆具备发展种植规模500×104hm2(7 500万亩),产量达到4 700×104t以上的极限粮食生产能力。【结论】新疆粮食生产能力潜力大,具备作为国家粮食安全后备基地的条件和要求,国家应采取强有力的扶持政策,提高新疆粮食生产能力。

Xinjiang Grain Productivity and Overall Layout as the National Reserve Base for Grain Security

【Objective】To predict Xinjiang grain productivity and overall optimum layout in 2020 based on the agriculture production conditions and developing features of Xinjiang,and the developing potentials of its water and soil resources.The information will provide evidence for ensuring grain security and building national reserve base in Xinjiang.【Method】Linear optimization model.【Result】(1)By developing water and land potential,increasing yield level,and optimizing layout,Xinjiang possesses the capability of grain production that can reach a planting area of 313.33×104 hm2 and with a yield of 2 700×104 t after considering the development of cotton,livestock,and fruits,taking into account the current production level and future demand of 14 different prefectures.(2)Suppose there is an extreme conditon such as big natural disaster,to meet the national strategic need without considering other planting,in 2020 Xinjiang possesses the extreme grain production capability with a planting area of 500×104 hm2 and a yield of 4 700×104 t.【Conclusion】Xinjiang has the qualification as national reserve base with big potential of grain productivity.The government should provide strong policy to support Xinjiang increasing grain productivity.