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| 黑龙港流域小麦产量潜力预测及影响因素与对策 | |
| 引用本文： | 李月英,张文英,李新,马俊勇,刘全喜,柳斌辉,栗雨勤.黑龙港流域小麦产量潜力预测及影响因素与对策[J].河北农业科学,2008,12(5):3-6. |
| 作者姓名： | 李月英 张文英 李新 马俊勇 刘全喜 柳斌辉 栗雨勤 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 衡水市气象局,河北衡水,053000 2. 河北省农林科学院旱作农业研究所,河北衡水,053000 3. 衡水市桃城区农业局,河北衡水,053000 |
| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划 , 河北省科技支撑计划 |
| 摘 要： | 为探讨衡水市冬小麦产量变化规律,利用灰色系统理论GM（1,1）模型,依据黑龙港流域中心的衡水市1976-2006年的冬小麦产量,建立预测模型为：X（1）（k＋1）=46 967.685 785 e0.042 467-45 857.685 785。据此模型对衡水市2007-2030年的冬小麦产量进行预测,并对冬小麦产量潜力影响因素以及对策进行了讨论,可为有关部门规划农业生产、调整种植结构提供科学依据。 |
| 关 键 词： | 冬小麦 产量 预测 灰色理论 因素 对策 |
The Forecast of Wheat Yield Potential in Heilonggang Area and Analysis on Their Influence Factors and Countermeasure |
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| LI Yue-ying,ZHANG Wen-ying,LI Xin,MA Jun-yong,LIU Quan-xi,LIU Bin-hui,LI Yu-qin.The Forecast of Wheat Yield Potential in Heilonggang Area and Analysis on Their Influence Factors and Countermeasure[J].Journal of Hebei Agricultural Sciences,2008,12(5):3-6. | |
| Authors: | LI Yue-ying ZHANG Wen-ying LI Xin MA Jun-yong LIU Quan-xi LIU Bin-hui LI Yu-qin |
| Institution: | LI Yue-ying , ZHANG Wen-ying, LI Xin , MA Jun-yong, LIU Quan-xi, LIU Bin-hui, LI Yu-qin. (1. Meteorology Bureau of Hengshui City, Hengshui 053000, China; 2. Dryland Farming Institute, Hebei Academy Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Hengshui 053000, China ; 3. Agricultural Bureau of Taocheng District in Hengshui City, Hengshui 053000, China) |
| Abstract: | Using the theory of grey system,a forecast model of X(1)(k 1)=46 967.685 785 e0.042 467-45 857.685 785 was constructed through investigation of the winter wheat yield of Hengshui City which was the center of Heilonggang during 1976-2006.Based on the model,the winter wheat yield of Hengshui City from 2007-2030 was forecasted and the influence factors of potential forecast of winter wheat yield and the countermeasure were also discussed.This study provided a scientific basis for planning agricultural production and adjusting the crop configuration for relevant departments. |
| Keywords: | Winter wheat Yield Forecast Grey system Factor Countermeasure |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |