海南省农业的产业关联与波及效应分析

农业是国民经济的基础产业,定量分析农业与其他产业关联效应,对推动一二三产业融合具有理论支撑作用。依据海南省2012年投入产出数据,运用投入产出法分析海南省农业与国民经济其他产业的产业关联与波及效应情况。结果表明:海南省农业对大多数产业既有拉动力又有推动力,后向需求拉动作用大于前向供给推动作用;海南省农业对农业、食品制造业和烟草加工业、住宿和餐饮业等产业的前向供给推动作用较明显,对农业、食品制造业和烟草加工业、化学工业、交通运输、仓储和邮政业、批发和零售业、金融业等产业的后向需求拉动作用较明显;海南省农业产品价格变化对食品制造和烟草加工业、住宿和餐饮业、木材加工品和家具制造业等产业产品价格的影响较大。

Correlation and Ripple Effect of Agriculture Sector in Hainan Province

Agriculture is the basic sector of national economy. Quantitative analysis of the effect of correlation between agriculture and other sectors gives a theoretical support to the promotion of convergence of primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. Based on the input and output data of Hainan province in 2012, the correlation between and the ripple effect of agriculture and other sectors were analyzed by using the input-output method. The results showed that agriculture had both pulling and driving forces acting on most sectors, and the backward demand pulling force was greater than the forward supply driving force in Hainan province. The agriculture sector had an obvious forward supply driving force acting on agriculture, food manufacturing, tobacco processing, hotel and catering sector, and had an obvious backward demand pulling force acting on agriculture, food manufacturing, tobacco processing industry, chemical industry, transportation, warehousing, postal sector, wholesale and retail trade, and financial sector. The price change of agricultural products had great impact on the prices of food manufacturing, tobacco processing, hotel and catering sector, wood processing and furniture manufacturing sectors.