Management approach using simple indices of deer density and status of understory vegetation for conserving deciduous hardwood forests on a regional scale

We investigated the validity and efficiency of a survey using sight per unit effort (SPUE) of sika deer and shrub-layer decline rank (SDR), which is an index of decline in the physical structure of a whole stand caused by sika deer, based on data collected on a broad scale. This survey was to be used to manage a deer population in order to conserve a forest ecosystem. First, we evaluated the spatial and temporal scales of deer density that are most appropriate for predicting decline in the status of understory vegetation. The model with SPUE calculated in a buffer with a radius of 4.5 km using data for the past 4 years was found to be the best. We showed that our knowledge of the relationship between deer density and status of shrub-layer vegetation is improved by identifying the most suitable spatial and temporal scales of SPUE for predicting SDR. Next, we quantified the effects of SPUE and environmental components on SDR in stands. We found that SPUE had the greatest effect on SDR among all explanatory variables. Moreover, the area under the curve (AUC) was large in a model that only used SPUE (AUC = 0.718). This result suggests that the variation in SDR among stands was explained well by SPUE regardless of differences in the forest environment. Furthermore, we identified the effective values of SPUE for preventing shrub-layer vegetation from declining through deer density control. We conclude that a management system based on SPUE and SDR is a simple and valid method for managing deer populations in order to conserve forest ecosystems.